AS Monaco — Olympique Marseille: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.4% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
AS Monaco
6th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Le Havre 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Strasbourg 4:5
- 10.05.2026 home Lille 0:1
- 02.05.2026 away Metz 2:1
- 25.04.2026 away Toulouse 2:2
Olympique Marseille
4th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 21.08.2026 home Strasbourg 4:0
- 17.05.2026 home Rennes 3:1
- 10.05.2026 away Le Havre 1:0
- 02.05.2026 away Nantes 0:3
- 26.04.2026 home Nice 1:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.04.2026 AS Monaco 2:1 Olympique Marseille
- 14.12.2025 Olympique Marseille 1:0 AS Monaco
- 12.04.2025 AS Monaco 3:0 Olympique Marseille
- 01.12.2024 Olympique Marseille 2:1 AS Monaco
- 27.01.2024 Olympique Marseille 2:2 AS Monaco
- 30.09.2023 AS Monaco 3:2 Olympique Marseille
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AS Monaco have a slight edge ahead of their Ligue 1 meeting with Olympique Marseille, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with room for different outcomes. The home side’s advantage is not expected to make this a one-sided match, and Olympique Marseille should remain competitive across the game.
The available indicators point towards an open, high-scoring encounter in which both teams are likely to find the net. That should make the balance particularly sensitive to individual moments, as neither defence appears likely to enjoy a completely comfortable evening. A draw remains a credible possibility, while AS Monaco have the stronger overall signal for avoiding defeat. The most balanced reading is therefore a close match with attacking intent from both sides and a narrow preference for the hosts.
What matters before kick-off
Matchday 1 Ligue 1 results
Both clubs started their Ligue 1 campaign with victories: AS Monaco defeated Le Havre 1-0, while Olympique Marseille earned a 4-0 win against Strasbourg.
AS Monaco's midweek European fixture
AS Monaco enter this match having defeated Górnik Zabrze 4-1 in midweek European action to advance to the UEFA Conference League phase.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.