FC Lorient — ESTAC Troyes: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.6% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 49.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.3% / 26.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
FC Lorient
11th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Nice 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Le Havre 0:2
- 10.05.2026 away Metz 4:0
- 02.05.2026 away Paris SG 2:2
- 26.04.2026 home Strasbourg 2:3
ESTAC Troyes
12th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Paris FC 0:0
- 09.05.2026 away Grenoble 0:1
- 02.05.2026 home Laval 4:0
- 25.04.2026 away St Etienne 3:0
- 18.04.2026 home Boulogne 1:0
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.02.2025 ESTAC Troyes 0:1 FC Lorient
- 06.12.2024 FC Lorient 2:0 ESTAC Troyes
- 12.03.2023 FC Lorient 2:0 ESTAC Troyes
- 23.10.2022 ESTAC Troyes 2:2 FC Lorient
- 21.05.2022 FC Lorient 1:1 ESTAC Troyes
- 01.12.2021 ESTAC Troyes 2:0 FC Lorient
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Lorient have a slight edge over ESTAC Troyes in this Ligue 1 meeting. The overall assessment points toward the hosts being clearly stronger, although the advantage is not so large that a draw can be discounted. Home control and a more reliable platform should shape the match, with FC Lorient likely to focus on managing the tempo and creating the clearer opportunities.
The game is expected to produce a moderate number of goals rather than become an open contest from the start. Both teams scoring remains difficult to call, so the balance between defensive discipline and clinical finishing may be decisive. ESTAC Troyes should still have opportunities if they can resist pressure and find space in transition, while FC Lorient will want to turn their home advantage into sustained territorial control. The safest reading is a result that protects the hosts from defeat, with a narrow home win or a level score both consistent with the available signals.
What matters before kick-off
Dermane Karim faces former club
Midfielder Dermane Karim, who joined ESTAC Troyes in August 2026, faces his former side FC Lorient, where he played on loan last season.
ESTAC Troyes opening match result
ESTAC Troyes started their Ligue 1 season on August 22, 2026, with a 0-0 home draw against Paris FC.
FC Lorient new signings presentation
Before kick-off against ESTAC Troyes, FC Lorient will officially present six new signings to their home supporters on the pitch.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.