Olympique Lyon — Le Havre AC: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.4% |
| 12 | 81.0% | |
| X2 | 32.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.4% / 18.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.2% / 62.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.9% / 80.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.3% / 90.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Olympique Lyon enter this Ligue 1 meeting with a clear overall advantage over Le Havre AC, although the moderate confidence suggests that the assessment should be treated with some caution. The available reading points toward a medium-scoring match, with Olympique Lyon expected to have the stronger platform and greater control of the contest. Le Havre AC will need to remain disciplined and make the most of their opportunities if they are to disrupt that balance.
The scoring outlook does not strongly favour both teams finding the net, as that remains an even possibility. The most consistent scoreline indications are 2:0 and 1:0, while 2:1 also reflects a plausible match pattern if Le Havre AC can contribute on the scoresheet. Overall, the analysis points toward a home win, but not one that should be regarded as certain, with the visitors still capable of making the game competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Lyon's recent European setback
Olympique Lyon enter the match looking to reset following their elimination from the UEFA Champions League qualifiers by Turkish side Fenerbahce. Meanwhile, Lyon won their opening Ligue 1 fixture against Toulouse.
Le Havre's season opener
Le Havre AC opened their 2026-27 Ligue 1 campaign with a 0-1 defeat against AS Monaco.
Lyon home record
Olympique Lyon are undefeated in their last six home matches against Le Havre AC across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.