Olympique Lyon — Le Havre AC: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.4% |
| 12 | 81.0% | |
| X2 | 32.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.4% / 18.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.2% / 62.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.9% / 80.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.3% / 90.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Olympique Lyon
4th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Toulouse 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Lens 0:4
- 10.05.2026 away Toulouse 1:2
- 03.05.2026 home Rennes 4:2
- 25.04.2026 home Auxerre 3:2
Le Havre AC
14th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Monaco 0:1
- 17.05.2026 away Lorient 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Marseille 0:1
- 03.05.2026 away Lille 1:1
- 26.04.2026 home Metz 4:4
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.03.2026 Le Havre AC 0:0 Olympique Lyon
- 14.12.2025 Olympique Lyon 1:0 Le Havre AC
- 16.03.2025 Olympique Lyon 4:2 Le Havre AC
- 20.10.2024 Le Havre AC 0:4 Olympique Lyon
- 14.01.2024 Le Havre AC 3:1 Olympique Lyon
- 17.09.2023 Olympique Lyon 0:0 Le Havre AC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Olympique Lyon enter this Ligue 1 meeting with a clear overall advantage over Le Havre AC, although the moderate confidence suggests that the assessment should be treated with some caution. The available reading points toward a medium-scoring match, with Olympique Lyon expected to have the stronger platform and greater control of the contest. Le Havre AC will need to remain disciplined and make the most of their opportunities if they are to disrupt that balance.
The scoring outlook does not strongly favour both teams finding the net, as that remains an even possibility. The most consistent scoreline indications are 2:0 and 1:0, while 2:1 also reflects a plausible match pattern if Le Havre AC can contribute on the scoresheet. Overall, the analysis points toward a home win, but not one that should be regarded as certain, with the visitors still capable of making the game competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Lyon's recent European setback
Olympique Lyon enter the match looking to reset following their elimination from the UEFA Champions League qualifiers by Turkish side Fenerbahce. Meanwhile, Lyon won their opening Ligue 1 fixture against Toulouse.
Le Havre's season opener
Le Havre AC opened their 2026-27 Ligue 1 campaign with a 0-1 defeat against AS Monaco.
Lyon home record
Olympique Lyon are undefeated in their last six home matches against Le Havre AC across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.