Stade Rennais FC — AJ Auxerre: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.5% |
| 12 | 80.0% | |
| X2 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.2% / 32.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Stade Rennais FC
5th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Lyon 0:4
- 11.09.2026 home Marseille 1:0
- 06.09.2026 away Angers 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Le Mans 3:2
- 23.08.2026 home Paris SG 2:2
AJ Auxerre
10th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Brest 2:1
- 12.09.2026 home Nice 1:0
- 04.09.2026 away Lyon 1:3
- 29.08.2026 home Angers 1:3
- 22.08.2026 away Lens 2:5
This season: Stade Rennais FC at home vs AJ Auxerre away
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC · at home | AJ Auxerre · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–0 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.81 | 1.28 |
| xG against per match | 2.16 | 3.64 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.02.2026 AJ Auxerre 0:3 Stade Rennais FC
- 19.10.2025 Stade Rennais FC 2:2 AJ Auxerre
- 06.04.2025 Stade Rennais FC 0:1 AJ Auxerre
- 03.11.2024 AJ Auxerre 4:0 Stade Rennais FC
- 11.03.2023 AJ Auxerre 0:0 Stade Rennais FC
- 11.09.2022 Stade Rennais FC 5:0 AJ Auxerre
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Stade Rennais FC enter this Ligue 1 fixture with a clear qualitative advantage over AJ Auxerre, although the confidence level is moderate rather than decisive. The available assessment points toward a high-scoring contest, suggesting that the attacking side of the game could be important. Both teams are also considered likely to score, which adds balance to the expectation despite the stronger overall position of the hosts.
The most plausible scorelines include a narrow Stade Rennais FC victory, alongside a more comfortable home win and a draw. This range reflects some uncertainty around the final margin, even though the overall assessment favors Stade Rennais FC. AJ Auxerre should therefore remain competitive, particularly in a match where both sides are expected to find the net. The fixture is scheduled for Ligue 1, with kickoff on October 11, 2026.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.