AS Monaco — Toulouse FC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 78.2% | |
| X2 | 38.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.9% / 40.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.8% / 58.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
AS Monaco
1st place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 home Lens 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Strasbourg 1:1
- 04.09.2026 away Paris SG 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Marseille 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Le Havre 1:0
Toulouse FC
13th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Le Havre 3:2
- 12.09.2026 away Lorient 2:2
- 03.09.2026 home Lille 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Brest 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Lyon 0:2
This season: AS Monaco at home vs Toulouse FC away
| Metric | AS Monaco · at home | Toulouse FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.46 | 1.38 |
| xG against per match | 1.13 | 1.84 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.50 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.04.2026 Toulouse FC 2:2 AS Monaco
- 25.10.2025 AS Monaco 1:0 Toulouse FC
- 07.03.2025 Toulouse FC 1:1 AS Monaco
- 07.12.2024 AS Monaco 2:0 Toulouse FC
- 18.02.2024 AS Monaco 1:2 Toulouse FC
- 20.12.2023 Toulouse FC 1:2 AS Monaco
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AS Monaco arrive into this Ligue 1 fixture sitting top of the table with 13 points from five matches, and their recent form reflects that standing: four wins and a draw in the last five, with eight goals scored against three conceded. At home this season they have taken maximum points from two matches, scoring four and conceding only one. On the balance of the headline numbers, the hosts look clearly stronger than the visitors.
Toulouse FC come in from 13th position, having gathered only five points from their opening five fixtures. Their recent run of one win, two draws and two defeats points to inconsistency, and the away record this season — two matches, two draws, four goals scored and four conceded — suggests a side that can find the net on the road but also leaks chances, consistent with the note that they allow clearly more opportunities than they create.
The head-to-head over six meetings favours AS Monaco with three wins to one, and the last encounter finished Toulouse FC 2-2 AS Monaco, with both teams scoring in four of those six matches. The picture leans towards the hosts, with goals at both ends a reasonable expectation, though confidence remains moderate rather than emphatic.
What matters before kick-off
AS Monaco report a clean bill of health
AS Monaco head coach Filipe Luís confirmed that he has a fully available squad ahead of the match against Toulouse, as previously injured players returned to full training.
Toulouse captain Nicolaisen ruled out
Toulouse defender and captain Rasmus Nicolaisen has been ruled out for the fixture against AS Monaco due to a lingering calf injury.
Toulouse picked up first win before international break
In their last Ligue 1 match before the international break, Toulouse secured their first league victory of the season by defeating Le Havre 3-2.
Monaco's consistent scoring run against Toulouse
AS Monaco have found the net in each of their last 20 Ligue 1 meetings against Toulouse.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.