FC Lorient — Paris FC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.2% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 73.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.1% / 42.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
FC Lorient
12th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Le Mans 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Toulouse 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Lens 1:0
- 29.08.2026 home Troyes 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Nice 0:0
Paris FC
3rd place · 11 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Strasbourg 2:1
- 12.09.2026 home Lyon 0:0
- 06.09.2026 away Marseille 3:2
- 30.08.2026 home Nice 3:0
- 22.08.2026 away Troyes 0:0
This season: FC Lorient at home vs Paris FC away
| Metric | FC Lorient · at home | Paris FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.01 | 2.55 |
| xG against per match | 1.60 | 0.92 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 5 meetings
- 05.04.2026 FC Lorient 1:1 Paris FC
- 03.10.2025 Paris FC 2:0 FC Lorient
- 08.03.2025 Paris FC 3:2 FC Lorient
- 14.12.2024 FC Lorient 2:0 Paris FC
- 29.07.2019 FC Lorient 3:0 Paris FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Lorient head into this Ligue 1 fixture sitting 12th with 5 points from 5 matches, and the recent form line reads L D W L D — one win, two draws and two defeats. At home the hosts have struggled to settle, taking just a single point from two outings while conceding more than they have scored, and the underlying picture suggests they have been allowing clearly more chances than they create on their own ground.
Paris FC arrive in a very different state. Three wins and two draws in their last five, no defeats, and eight goals scored for only three conceded have carried them up to 3rd in the table on 11 points. Their away record is also unbeaten so far this season, and the chance-quality balance on the road has been firmly in their favour. On this evidence there is a slight edge for the visitors, though confidence is only moderate.
The head-to-head keeps the door open for FC Lorient. Across five meetings the sides are level at two wins apiece with one draw, and the last encounter finished 1-1. A tight, medium-scoring contest looks the most natural reading, with the visitors marginally better placed.
What matters before kick-off
Result Before International Break
FC Lorient entered the international break following a 2-1 away defeat to Le Mans, leaving them with just one win from their opening five Ligue 1 fixtures of the season.
Paris FC's Unbeaten Start
Liam Rosenior's Paris FC remained unbeaten across their opening five Ligue 1 matches of the season (W3, D2), picking up 11 points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.