Lille OSC — Le Havre AC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.1% / 17.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.1% / 39.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.7% / 62.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.4% / 79.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Lille OSC
4th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Nice 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Troyes 2:0
- 03.09.2026 away Toulouse 1:0
- 28.08.2026 home Paris SG 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Angers 2:0
Le Havre AC
18th place · 2 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Toulouse 2:3
- 12.09.2026 home Angers 0:0
- 05.09.2026 home Brest 1:2
- 29.08.2026 away Lyon 1:1
- 23.08.2026 home Monaco 0:1
This season: Lille OSC at home vs Le Havre AC away
| Metric | Lille OSC · at home | Le Havre AC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.42 | 1.51 |
| xG against per match | 0.94 | 1.82 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 Lille OSC 1:1 Le Havre AC
- 30.11.2025 Le Havre AC 0:1 Lille OSC
- 08.02.2025 Lille OSC 1:2 Le Havre AC
- 28.09.2024 Le Havre AC 0:3 Lille OSC
- 17.02.2024 Lille OSC 3:0 Le Havre AC
- 01.10.2023 Le Havre AC 0:2 Lille OSC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Lille OSC head into this Ligue 1 fixture in a noticeably better place than Le Havre AC. The hosts sit fourth of eighteen with ten points from five matches, and their recent form reads three wins, one draw and one defeat across the last five, with eight goals scored. Le Havre AC, by contrast, are rooted at the bottom of the table on two points, without a win in their last five and with more goals conceded than scored over that stretch. On paper, the gap between fourth and eighteenth is the clearest marker heading into kickoff.
The historical record also leans toward the hosts. In six previous meetings, Lille OSC have won four, with one draw and a single Le Havre AC victory. The most recent encounter, however, finished Lille OSC 1-1 Le Havre AC, a reminder that this fixture has not always followed the form guide. At home this season Lille OSC remain unbeaten across two matches and create clearly more chances than they allow, while Le Havre AC's away sample is thin and roughly level in chance quality.
Taken together, the signals suggest a moderate edge for the hosts rather than anything emphatic, with goals plausible at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
Lille squad updates
Lille head coach Davide Ancelotti confirmed that Ethan Mbappe and Hamza Igamane are ruled out against Le Havre AC due to injuries, while Tanguy Nianzou and Nabil Bentaleb have returned to full training.
Le Havre team news
Le Havre AC manager Didier Digard confirmed that Timothee Pembele, Lionel Mpasi, and Felix Mambimbi remain unavailable, whereas Junior Mwanga and Rassoul Ndiaye have recovered from adductor issues.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.