OGC Nice — Strasbourg Alsace: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.8% / 34.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.2% / 36.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.0% / 59.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.0% / 77.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
OGC Nice
14th place · 5 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Lille 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Auxerre 0:1
- 05.09.2026 home Le Mans 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Paris FC 0:3
- 22.08.2026 home Lorient 0:0
Strasbourg Alsace
8th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Paris FC 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Monaco 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Troyes 6:2
- 29.08.2026 home Lens 2:1
- 21.08.2026 away Marseille 0:4
This season: OGC Nice at home vs Strasbourg Alsace away
| Metric | OGC Nice · at home | Strasbourg Alsace · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–0 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 2.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.24 | 1.13 |
| xG against per match | 1.45 | 1.95 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2026 Strasbourg Alsace 3:1 OGC Nice
- 03.01.2026 OGC Nice 1:1 Strasbourg Alsace
- 12.04.2025 Strasbourg Alsace 2:2 OGC Nice
- 24.11.2024 OGC Nice 2:1 Strasbourg Alsace
- 28.04.2024 Strasbourg Alsace 1:3 OGC Nice
- 03.09.2023 OGC Nice 2:0 Strasbourg Alsace
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
OGC Nice and Strasbourg Alsace meet in Ligue 1 in a contest that looks evenly matched on the available assessment. The qualitative outlook gives neither side a clear advantage, with moderate confidence in the overall reading. That suggests a game where the balance between the teams could remain finely poised rather than developing into a one-sided encounter.
The scoring profile points toward an open match, with both teams likely to find the net. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, alongside narrow wins for either OGC Nice or Strasbourg Alsace. This supports the broader view of a competitive fixture in which chances should be available at both ends. The 1X signal provides some support for the home side avoiding defeat, but the assessment still treats the teams as evenly matched. Overall, OGC Nice may have a slight structural advantage from the home setting, while Strasbourg Alsace remain capable of making the contest competitive.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.