ESTAC Troyes — Olympique Marseille: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.9% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 73.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.3% / 36.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.3% / 60.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.6% / 78.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.3% / 89.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
ESTAC Troyes
16th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Angers 0:2
- 13.09.2026 away Lille 0:2
- 06.09.2026 home Strasbourg 2:6
- 29.08.2026 away Lorient 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Paris FC 0:0
Olympique Marseille
17th place · 3 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Paris SG 1:2
- 11.09.2026 away Rennes 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Paris FC 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Monaco 0:2
- 21.08.2026 home Strasbourg 4:0
This season: ESTAC Troyes at home vs Olympique Marseille away
| Metric | ESTAC Troyes · at home | Olympique Marseille · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.68 | 1.28 |
| xG against per match | 2.38 | 1.69 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 8.50 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 16.04.2023 Olympique Marseille 3:1 ESTAC Troyes
- 11.01.2023 ESTAC Troyes 0:2 Olympique Marseille
- 27.02.2022 ESTAC Troyes 1:1 Olympique Marseille
- 28.11.2021 Olympique Marseille 1:0 ESTAC Troyes
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
1 on October 11, with the available assessment giving the visitors a slight edge. Although the teams should not be considered completely mismatched, Olympique Marseille appear better positioned to avoid defeat. The outlook points towards a competitive encounter in which ESTAC Troyes may still have opportunities to influence the scoreline, particularly if they can make effective use of their attacking moments.
A relatively open match is anticipated, with goals expected at both ends. The leading scoreline scenarios suggest that a draw remains plausible, while a narrow Olympique Marseille victory is also a credible possibility. ESTAC Troyes will need to remain organised defensively to limit the visitors' opportunities, especially if the game develops into an end-to-end contest. For Olympique Marseille, the priority will be to turn their overall advantage into clear scoring chances while managing the risks of conceding. Overall, the analysis favours Olympique Marseille to secure at least a point, but the prospect of both teams scoring suggests that the hosts should not be discounted entirely.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.