Paris Saint-Germain — Le Mans FC: Win probabilities, 10.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.9% |
| 12 | 89.6% | |
| X2 | 16.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.0% / 47.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.3% / 1.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.8% / 9.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.2% / 23.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.2% / 62.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.10.2026
Paris Saint-Germain
6th place · 8 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Marseille 2:1
- 13.09.2026 away Brest 1:0
- 04.09.2026 home Monaco 1:2
- 28.08.2026 away Lille 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Rennes 2:2
Le Mans FC
9th place · 6 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Lorient 2:1
- 13.09.2026 home Lens 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Nice 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Rennes 2:3
- 22.08.2026 home Brest 2:2
This season: Paris Saint-Germain at home vs Le Mans FC away
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain · at home | Le Mans FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.32 | 2.13 |
| xG against per match | 0.50 | 1.91 |
| Shots on target per match | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Paris Saint-Germain host Le Mans FC in Ligue 1, and the table offers a useful starting point. The hosts sit sixth of eighteen with 8 points from 5 matches, while Le Mans FC are three places and two points behind in ninth. Neither side has been especially tidy of late: Paris Saint-Germain have scored 8 and conceded 7 across their last five, drawing twice and losing once in a W W L D D sequence, while Le Mans FC have gathered three draws in five and sit on 9 goals for and 9 against.
The travel picture is the most telling detail for the visitors. Le Mans FC have played only twice on the road this season, taking a single draw alongside a defeat, with 3 goals scored and 4 conceded. The underlying balance is modest too, with chances created and allowed described as roughly level, which gives them little margin against a stronger opponent on home soil.
Taken together, the signals point to a clear edge for the hosts, and the shape of recent matches suggests goals are plausible. Paris Saint-Germain look the firmer side here, though Le Mans FC's draw-heavy form is a reminder that nothing is settled before kickoff.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and absences
Paris Saint-Germain will be without injured midfielders Warren Zaïre-Emery and Senny Mayulu. Le Mans are missing defender Djibril Sidibé due to suspension.
Le Mans return to the top flight
Le Mans are back in Ligue 1 for the first time in 16 years and have not faced Paris Saint-Germain in the top division since May 2010.
Paris Saint-Germain form guide
Paris Saint-Germain enter the match on a three-game winning streak across all competitions, including Ligue 1 victories over Brest and Marseille, alongside a 6–1 Champions League win against Slovan Bratislava.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.