Racing Club De Lens — Olympique Lyon: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.6% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 63.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.6% / 13.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.4% / 34.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.5% / 56.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.0% / 75.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
Racing Club De Lens
15th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Monaco 1:2
- 13.09.2026 away Le Mans 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Lorient 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Strasbourg 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Auxerre 5:2
Olympique Lyon
2nd place · 11 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Rennes 4:0
- 12.09.2026 away Paris FC 0:0
- 04.09.2026 home Auxerre 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home Le Havre 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Toulouse 2:0
This season: Racing Club De Lens at home vs Olympique Lyon away
| Metric | Racing Club De Lens · at home | Olympique Lyon · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.83 | 0.60 |
| xG against per match | 1.73 | 1.53 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.50 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 Olympique Lyon 0:4 Racing Club De Lens
- 16.08.2025 Racing Club De Lens 0:1 Olympique Lyon
- 04.05.2025 Olympique Lyon 1:2 Racing Club De Lens
- 15.09.2024 Racing Club De Lens 0:0 Olympique Lyon
- 03.03.2024 Olympique Lyon 0:3 Racing Club De Lens
- 02.12.2023 Racing Club De Lens 3:2 Olympique Lyon
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Racing Club De Lens host Olympique Lyon in Ligue 1 with the table pointing in sharply different directions. The visitors arrive second of 18 with 11 points from five matches, unbeaten in their recent run of three wins and two draws, and have conceded nothing in their two away outings so far. Lens, by contrast, sit fifteenth with just four points, have lost three of their last five, and show a balanced goal profile at home of five scored and three conceded across two matches.
The counterweight comes from history and context. The last meeting ended Olympique Lyon 0-4 Racing Club De Lens earlier in 2026, and across six head-to-head encounters the hosts hold four wins to one. Lens also create clearly more chances than they allow at home, while Olympique Lyon tend to allow clearly more chances than they create on the road, which narrows the gap suggested by the standings.
Taken together, form and league position favour the visitors, but the home record in this fixture and the chance-quality picture make the teams look evenly matched overall, with a moderate lean rather than a firm one. Both sides have shown they can score, and a tight, open contest is the natural reading.
What matters before kick-off
Abdallah Sima injury
Lens forward Abdallah Sima suffered a thigh injury on international duty with Senegal and is ruled out until late November.
Lyon squad absences
Lyon defender Moussa Niakhaté will miss the game due to a muscle injury sustained on international duty, while Mohamed Ouédraogo suffered a serious knee injury in training.
Lyon unbeaten streak
Lyon enter the match sitting second in Ligue 1 and remain undefeated through their opening five league fixtures.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.