St Mirren FC — Motherwell FC: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.8% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 58.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.7% / 42.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.1% / 21.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
St Mirren FC and Motherwell FC look evenly matched ahead of their Premiership meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence rather than a clear advantage for either side, so the contest may be shaped by small details and how effectively each team manages key phases of play. The home setting gives St Mirren FC a potential platform, while Motherwell FC remain well placed to make the match competitive.
A medium-scoring game is indicated, with both teams scoring considered an uncertain possibility rather than a strong expectation. The leading scoreline is 1:1, while 2:1 and 1:0 also reflect the narrow range of outcomes suggested by the assessment. Overall, this points towards a close match in which neither side has established enough separation to be considered clearly stronger.
What matters before kick-off
Match reschedule
The fixture between St Mirren and Motherwell was moved to Sunday, 30 August 2026, due to Motherwell's involvement in the UEFA Conference League play-off round.
Motherwell's European fixture congestion
Ahead of the Sunday Premiership match, Motherwell played the second leg of their UEFA Conference League play-off tie against German side Freiburg on Thursday, 27 August.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.