St Mirren FC — Motherwell FC: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.8% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 58.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.7% / 42.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.1% / 21.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
St Mirren FC
3rd place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Rangers 0:0
- 08.08.2026 home St Johnstone 1:0
- 01.08.2026 away Falkirk 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Dundee United 1:1
- 12.05.2026 away Aberdeen 2:0
Motherwell FC
5th place · 5 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Aberdeen 0:0
- 09.08.2026 home Falkirk 0:0
- 02.08.2026 away Hibernian 2:1
- 16.05.2026 away Hibernian 1:0
- 13.05.2026 home Celtic 2:3
This season: St Mirren FC at home vs Motherwell FC away
| Metric | St Mirren FC · at home | Motherwell FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.36 | 2.00 |
| xG against per match | 1.13 | 1.92 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.02.2026 St Mirren FC 0:5 Motherwell FC
- 03.01.2026 Motherwell FC 2:0 St Mirren FC
- 09.08.2025 St Mirren FC 0:0 Motherwell FC
- 15.03.2025 Motherwell FC 2:2 St Mirren FC
- 07.12.2024 St Mirren FC 0:1 Motherwell FC
- 28.09.2024 Motherwell FC 2:1 St Mirren FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
St Mirren FC and Motherwell FC look evenly matched ahead of their Premiership meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence rather than a clear advantage for either side, so the contest may be shaped by small details and how effectively each team manages key phases of play. The home setting gives St Mirren FC a potential platform, while Motherwell FC remain well placed to make the match competitive.
A medium-scoring game is indicated, with both teams scoring considered an uncertain possibility rather than a strong expectation. The leading scoreline is 1:1, while 2:1 and 1:0 also reflect the narrow range of outcomes suggested by the assessment. Overall, this points towards a close match in which neither side has established enough separation to be considered clearly stronger.
What matters before kick-off
Match reschedule
The fixture between St Mirren and Motherwell was moved to Sunday, 30 August 2026, due to Motherwell's involvement in the UEFA Conference League play-off round.
Motherwell's European fixture congestion
Ahead of the Sunday Premiership match, Motherwell played the second leg of their UEFA Conference League play-off tie against German side Freiburg on Thursday, 27 August.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.