Kilmarnock FC — Dundee United: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.2% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 61.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.1% / 16.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.8% / 39.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.5% / 61.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.9% / 90.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Kilmarnock FC
11th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Hibernian 0:0
- 09.08.2026 home Celtic 1:5
- 02.08.2026 away St Johnstone 3:4
- 17.05.2026 away Livingston 4:1
- 12.05.2026 home Dundee 3:1
Dundee United
12th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Dundee 0:2
- 09.08.2026 away Hearts 0:4
- 31.07.2026 home Rangers 1:1
- 17.05.2026 away St Mirren 1:1
- 12.05.2026 home Livingston 0:0
This season: Kilmarnock FC at home vs Dundee United away
| Metric | Kilmarnock FC · at home | Dundee United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.85 | 0.54 |
| xG against per match | 5.64 | 2.10 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.05.2026 Kilmarnock FC 3:0 Dundee United
- 21.02.2026 Dundee United 1:1 Kilmarnock FC
- 29.11.2025 Kilmarnock FC 1:1 Dundee United
- 27.09.2025 Dundee United 0:2 Kilmarnock FC
- 01.02.2025 Kilmarnock FC 1:0 Dundee United
- 07.12.2024 Dundee United 1:1 Kilmarnock FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Kilmarnock FC and Dundee United look evenly matched ahead of their Premiership meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with a moderate level of confidence in that reading. This points towards a competitive contest in which small details, particularly in the key moments around both penalty areas, could have a significant influence.
The game is expected to have an open attacking character, with both teams likely to score. That suggests Kilmarnock FC may find opportunities at home, while Dundee United should also have enough threat to keep the visitors involved throughout. The main balance of the match leans towards the home side avoiding defeat, but the narrow difference between the teams makes a draw a credible outcome as well. A scoreline such as 1-1 fits the assessment, although a one-goal win for either team would also be consistent with the expected pattern.
What matters before kick-off
League Cup Progress
Kilmarnock enter the match having reached the Scottish League Cup quarter-finals following a 3-2 victory over Ayr United on August 14, 2026.
Head-to-Head Record
Kilmarnock are undefeated in their last 12 home matches against Dundee United across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.