St Mirren FC — Hibernian FC: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.9% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 72.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.2% / 37.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.8% / 17.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.6% / 62.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.10.2026
St Mirren FC
6th place · 14 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Dundee 2:1
- 17.10.2026 away Aberdeen 1:3
- 10.10.2026 away Hearts 0:5
- 19.09.2026 home Dundee United 0:3
- 09.09.2026 away Rangers 0:1
Hibernian FC
12th place · 8 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Celtic 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Falkirk 1:2
- 10.10.2026 away Dundee United 0:1
- 19.09.2026 home Aberdeen 1:1
- 15.09.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:1
This season: St Mirren FC at home vs Hibernian FC away
| Metric | St Mirren FC · at home | Hibernian FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–2 | 2–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.80 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.53 | 1.67 |
| xG against per match | 1.83 | 1.75 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.80 | 4.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.02.2026 Hibernian FC 2:0 St Mirren FC
- 08.11.2025 St Mirren FC 0:3 Hibernian FC
- 31.08.2025 Hibernian FC 1:1 St Mirren FC
- 14.05.2025 St Mirren FC 2:2 Hibernian FC
- 16.02.2025 St Mirren FC 0:0 Hibernian FC
- 09.11.2024 Hibernian FC 1:2 St Mirren FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
St Mirren FC come into this meeting with a difficult recent run, losing four of their last five matches and scoring only 3 goals while conceding 13. They sit sixth in the Premiership with 14 points from 11 games, while their home record is more balanced: two wins, one draw and two defeats from five matches. That suggests St Mirren FC can be competitive at home, but their recent defensive record is a concern.
Hibernian FC have also struggled recently, with four defeats and one draw in their last five, and they are currently bottom of the table with 8 points. Their away record is less concerning than their overall form, however, with two wins and two defeats from four matches and an even 5-5 goal balance. The recent head-to-head record is also relatively close, although Hibernian FC won the latest meeting 2-0 in 2026. Overall, this points to a tight contest with a slight edge for Hibernian FC, while the game has the potential to produce goals from both sides.
What matters before kick-off
Hibernian squad news
Hibernian entered the match with several missing players, as defenders Kanayo Megwa, Jordan Obita and Rocky Bushiri, midfielders Jacob Devaney and Callum Wright, and forward Nathan Lowe all missed out against Celtic. Martin Boyle was also sidelined due to illness.
St Mirren recent result
St Mirren enter the fixture following a 2-1 home victory over Dundee in the Scottish Premiership, with goals scored by Calvin Ramsay and Eseosa Sule.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.