Aberdeen FC — Falkirk FC: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.5% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.9% / 20.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.3% / 66.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.10.2026
Aberdeen FC
9th place · 12 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Dundee United 2:3
- 17.10.2026 home St Mirren 3:1
- 11.10.2026 home St Johnstone 0:1
- 19.09.2026 away Hibernian 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Motherwell 4:0
Falkirk FC
7th place · 13 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Kilmarnock 3:0
- 17.10.2026 away Hibernian 2:1
- 10.10.2026 home Dundee 1:2
- 19.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:1
- 15.09.2026 home Hearts 2:1
This season: Aberdeen FC at home vs Falkirk FC away
| Metric | Aberdeen FC · at home | Falkirk FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–2 | 1–3–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| xG against per match | 1.34 | 1.61 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 14.03.2026 Aberdeen FC 1:1 Falkirk FC
- 03.01.2026 Falkirk FC 1:0 Aberdeen FC
- 31.08.2025 Aberdeen FC 0:1 Falkirk FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Aberdeen FC head into their Premiership meeting with Falkirk FC with a slight edge, although the recent form of both sides suggests a competitive contest. Aberdeen FC have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding six. Their attacking output has been encouraging, but defensive consistency remains a consideration. They sit ninth in the table with 12 points from 11 matches, and their home record has been mixed, with two wins, one draw and two defeats in five games. The balance of chances created and allowed at home suggests there is little room for complacency.
Falkirk FC arrive in better recent form, having won three of their last five matches, with one draw and one defeat. They have scored nine goals and conceded five during that run, indicating a solid overall balance. Sitting seventh with 13 points, they hold a narrow advantage over Aberdeen FC in the standings. However, their away performances have been less convincing, with just one win in five matches, alongside three draws and one defeat. They also tend to allow more chances than they create on the road, which could give Aberdeen FC opportunities to take control. The previous meeting ended 1-1, and another closely contested match appears plausible, with both teams capable of finding the net.
What matters before kick-off
Recent team results
Falkirk enter the match following back-to-back Scottish Premiership victories over Hibernian and Kilmarnock, whereas Aberdeen lost 3-2 to Dundee United in their previous league fixture.
Aberdeen squad issues
Ahead of the Falkirk match, Aberdeen defender Lewis Mayo is facing a long-term spell out with a fractured foot, while several squad members were sidelined by a viral illness.
Recent head-to-head record
Falkirk went unbeaten away against Aberdeen at Pittodrie in the previous Premiership campaign, securing one victory and one draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
