Match intelligence

Aberdeen FC — Falkirk FC: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026

League: Premiership (Scotland) · Kick-off:

Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 47.1% Home win Aberdeen FC
X 26.5% Draw
W2 26.5% Away win Falkirk FC
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X73.5%
Both teams to score
Yes58.7%
Totals 2.5
Over55.6%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X73.5%
1273.5%
X252.9%
Both teams to scoreYes/No58.7% / 41.3%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 93.3% / 6.7%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 79.9% / 20.1%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 55.6% / 44.4%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 33.3% / 66.7%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 17.0% / 83.0%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 7.5% / 92.5%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Aberdeen FC × Falkirk FC
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.7%
0:1 5.4%
0:2 4.1%
0:3 1.7%
0:4 0.5%
0:5 0.1%
1
1:0 8.0%
1:1 12.5%
1:2 6.9%
1:3 2.8%
1:4 0.9%
1:5 0.2%
2
2:0 7.8%
2:1 9.5%
2:2 5.8%
2:3 2.4%
2:4 0.7%
2:5 0.2%
3
3:0 4.4%
3:1 5.3%
3:2 3.3%
3:3 1.3%
3:4 0.4%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 1.8%
4:1 2.3%
4:2 1.4%
4:3 0.6%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.6%
5:1 0.8%
5:2 0.5%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.5%
2:19.5%
1:08.0%
2:07.8%
1:26.9%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 28.10.2026

Aberdeen FC

9th place · 12 pts after 11

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 24.10.2026 away Dundee United 2:3
  • 17.10.2026 home St Mirren 3:1
  • 11.10.2026 home St Johnstone 0:1
  • 19.09.2026 away Hibernian 1:1
  • 15.09.2026 away Motherwell 4:0

Falkirk FC

7th place · 13 pts after 11

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 24.10.2026 home Kilmarnock 3:0
  • 17.10.2026 away Hibernian 2:1
  • 10.10.2026 home Dundee 1:2
  • 19.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:1
  • 15.09.2026 home Hearts 2:1

This season: Aberdeen FC at home vs Falkirk FC away

Metric Aberdeen FC · at home Falkirk FC · away
Matches55
W–D–L2–1–21–3–1
Goals scored per match1.001.00
Goals conceded per match0.801.00
xG for per match1.500.70
xG against per match1.341.61
Shots on target per match3.803.00
Corners per match6.204.20
Over 2.5 goals40%40%
Both teams scored40%80%

Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings

Aberdeen FC wins0
Draws1
Falkirk FC wins2
Goals per match1.33
Both teams scored1/3
Over 2.5 goals0/3
  • 14.03.2026 Aberdeen FC 1:1 Falkirk FC
  • 03.01.2026 Falkirk FC 1:0 Aberdeen FC
  • 31.08.2025 Aberdeen FC 0:1 Falkirk FC

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Aberdeen FC head into their Premiership meeting with Falkirk FC with a slight edge, although the recent form of both sides suggests a competitive contest. Aberdeen FC have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding six. Their attacking output has been encouraging, but defensive consistency remains a consideration. They sit ninth in the table with 12 points from 11 matches, and their home record has been mixed, with two wins, one draw and two defeats in five games. The balance of chances created and allowed at home suggests there is little room for complacency.

Falkirk FC arrive in better recent form, having won three of their last five matches, with one draw and one defeat. They have scored nine goals and conceded five during that run, indicating a solid overall balance. Sitting seventh with 13 points, they hold a narrow advantage over Aberdeen FC in the standings. However, their away performances have been less convincing, with just one win in five matches, alongside three draws and one defeat. They also tend to allow more chances than they create on the road, which could give Aberdeen FC opportunities to take control. The previous meeting ended 1-1, and another closely contested match appears plausible, with both teams capable of finding the net.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Recent team results

Falkirk enter the match following back-to-back Scottish Premiership victories over Hibernian and Kilmarnock, whereas Aberdeen lost 3-2 to Dundee United in their previous league fixture.

Team news

Aberdeen squad issues

Ahead of the Falkirk match, Aberdeen defender Lewis Mayo is facing a long-term spell out with a fractured foot, while several squad members were sidelined by a viral illness.

Match fact

Recent head-to-head record

Falkirk went unbeaten away against Aberdeen at Pittodrie in the previous Premiership campaign, securing one victory and one draw.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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