St. Johnstone FC — Motherwell FC: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026

St. Johnstone FC host Motherwell FC in a Premiership fixture that looks competitive, although the recent form of the visitors gives the home side some reason for optimism. St. Johnstone FC have collected one win, two draws and two defeats across their last five matches, scoring three goals and conceding seven. Their overall record has been inconsistent, but their home performances offer a more encouraging picture: two wins and three draws from six games, with only one defeat. They have scored eight goals at home, suggesting they can create enough opportunities to trouble the opposition.

Motherwell FC arrive in considerably poorer form, having lost their last five matches while scoring three goals and conceding thirteen. They sit 10th in the table, three points behind St. Johnstone FC in 8th place. Their away record includes one win, one draw and three defeats, and their tendency to allow more chances than they create is a concern against a home team with a reasonably solid record on its own ground.

The head-to-head history adds another layer of uncertainty: Motherwell FC won the most recent meeting 3-2 in 2025, and both teams scored in all six recorded encounters. A moderately balanced contest with goals at both ends looks plausible, with St. Johnstone FC holding a slight advantage through home form and Motherwell FC's recent defensive difficulties.