Match intelligence

Heart of Midlothian FC — Glasgow Rangers: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026

League: Premiership (Scotland) · Kick-off:

Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 30.4% Home win Heart of Midlothian FC
X 24.9% Draw
W2 44.7% Away win Glasgow Rangers
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1275.1%
Both teams to score
Yes63.2%
Totals 2.5
Over61.1%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X55.3%
1275.1%
X269.6%
Both teams to scoreYes/No63.2% / 36.8%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.9% / 5.1%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 83.1% / 16.9%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 61.1% / 38.9%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 38.8% / 61.2%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 21.2% / 78.8%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 10.1% / 89.9%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Heart of Midlothian FC × Glasgow Rangers
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 5.1%
0:1 6.6%
0:2 6.5%
0:3 3.8%
0:4 1.6%
0:5 0.6%
1
1:0 5.2%
1:1 11.3%
1:2 9.2%
1:3 5.3%
1:4 2.3%
1:5 0.8%
2
2:0 4.2%
2:1 7.4%
2:2 6.5%
2:3 3.8%
2:4 1.6%
2:5 0.6%
3
3:0 2.0%
3:1 3.5%
3:2 3.0%
3:3 1.8%
3:4 0.8%
3:5 0.3%
4
4:0 0.7%
4:1 1.2%
4:2 1.1%
4:3 0.6%
4:4 0.3%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.2%
5:1 0.3%
5:2 0.3%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.3%
1:29.2%
2:17.4%
0:16.6%
0:26.5%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 28.10.2026

Heart of Midlothian FC

3rd place · 20 pts after 11

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 25.10.2026 away Motherwell 2:0
  • 18.10.2026 away Celtic 1:7
  • 10.10.2026 home St Mirren 5:0
  • 19.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:1
  • 15.09.2026 away Falkirk 1:2

Glasgow Rangers

2nd place · 24 pts after 11

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 24.10.2026 home St Johnstone 4:0
  • 17.10.2026 away Dundee 2:2
  • 10.10.2026 home Kilmarnock 3:1
  • 20.09.2026 away Celtic 1:0
  • 09.09.2026 home St Mirren 1:0

This season: Heart of Midlothian FC at home vs Glasgow Rangers away

Metric Heart of Midlothian FC · at home Glasgow Rangers · away
Matches45
W–D–L4–0–03–2–0
Goals scored per match3.251.40
Goals conceded per match0.500.80
xG for per match2.281.58
xG against per match0.721.09
Shots on target per match6.756.80
Corners per match8.756.40
Over 2.5 goals100%40%
Both teams scored50%60%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Heart of Midlothian FC wins3
Draws0
Glasgow Rangers wins3
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 04.05.2026 Heart of Midlothian FC 2:1 Glasgow Rangers
  • 15.02.2026 Glasgow Rangers 4:2 Heart of Midlothian FC
  • 21.12.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 2:1 Glasgow Rangers
  • 13.09.2025 Glasgow Rangers 0:2 Heart of Midlothian FC
  • 16.02.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 1:3 Glasgow Rangers
  • 10.11.2024 Glasgow Rangers 1:0 Heart of Midlothian FC

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Heart of Midlothian FC face Glasgow Rangers in a Premiership contest between two sides with strong credentials, although the visitors hold a slight edge overall. Heart of Midlothian FC sit third with 20 points from 11 matches, while Glasgow Rangers are second on 24 points. Recent form favours the visitors, who have won four and drawn one of their last five matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just three. Heart of Midlothian FC have been less consistent, with two wins, one draw and two defeats across their last five games, despite scoring 10 goals.

The home side’s record at their own ground is a significant counterweight. Heart of Midlothian FC have won all four home league matches this season, scoring 13 goals and conceding only two. Glasgow Rangers have also been reliable away from home, recording three wins and two draws in five matches without a defeat. Both teams create more chances than they allow, suggesting that the contest could feature sustained attacking pressure at both ends. Their recent head-to-head record is evenly split, with three wins apiece across six meetings, and the latest encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for Heart of Midlothian FC. A competitive, potentially high-scoring match looks plausible, with both teams capable of finding the net and Glasgow Rangers holding a moderate overall advantage.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Availability

Harry Milne injury

Hearts left-back Harry Milne has been ruled out for the remainder of the season after sustaining an ACL knee injury in training, as confirmed by head coach Wouter Vrancken.

Team news

Rangers squad update

Rangers manager Derek McInnes confirmed during his pre-match press conference that his side have no fresh injury concerns ahead of their trip to Tynecastle.

Schedule

Recent league results

Hearts head into the fixture following a 2-0 away victory over Motherwell, while Rangers earned a 4-0 home win against St Johnstone in their last Premiership match.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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