Match intelligence

Celtic Glasgow — Dundee United: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026

League: Premiership (Scotland) · Kick-off:

Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 77.2% Home win Celtic Glasgow
X 13.8% Draw
W2 9.0% Away win Dundee United
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X91.0%
Both teams to score
Yes55.3%
Totals 2.5
Over71.5%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X91.0%
1286.2%
X222.8%
Both teams to scoreYes/No55.3% / 44.7%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 97.5% / 2.5%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 88.5% / 11.5%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 71.5% / 28.5%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 50.6% / 49.4%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 31.3% / 68.7%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 17.0% / 83.0%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Celtic Glasgow × Dundee United
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 2.5%
0:1 2.1%
0:2 1.0%
0:3 0.3%
0:4 0.1%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 6.9%
1:1 6.2%
1:2 2.7%
1:3 0.8%
1:4 0.2%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 9.8%
2:1 8.7%
2:2 3.8%
2:3 1.1%
2:4 0.3%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 9.2%
3:1 8.1%
3:2 3.6%
3:3 1.1%
3:4 0.2%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 6.5%
4:1 5.7%
4:2 2.5%
4:3 0.8%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 3.6%
5:1 3.2%
5:2 1.4%
5:3 0.4%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:09.8%
3:09.2%
2:18.7%
3:18.1%
1:06.9%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 28.10.2026

Celtic Glasgow

1st place · 28 pts after 11

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 25.10.2026 away Hibernian 2:1
  • 18.10.2026 home Hearts 7:1
  • 11.10.2026 away Motherwell 2:0
  • 20.09.2026 home Rangers 0:1
  • 09.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:0

Dundee United

4th place · 15 pts after 10

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 24.10.2026 home Aberdeen 3:2
  • 17.10.2026 away St Johnstone 1:1
  • 10.10.2026 home Hibernian 1:0
  • 19.09.2026 away St Mirren 3:0
  • 05.09.2026 home Falkirk 1:1

This season: Celtic Glasgow at home vs Dundee United away

Metric Celtic Glasgow · at home Dundee United · away
Matches55
W–D–L4–0–12–1–2
Goals scored per match2.601.60
Goals conceded per match0.601.60
xG for per match2.561.37
xG against per match0.821.48
Shots on target per match7.005.00
Corners per match8.804.80
Over 2.5 goals60%80%
Both teams scored40%20%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Celtic Glasgow wins4
Draws0
Dundee United wins2
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 22.03.2026 Dundee United 2:0 Celtic Glasgow
  • 10.01.2026 Celtic Glasgow 4:0 Dundee United
  • 17.12.2025 Dundee United 2:1 Celtic Glasgow
  • 26.04.2025 Dundee United 0:5 Celtic Glasgow
  • 15.02.2025 Celtic Glasgow 3:0 Dundee United
  • 08.01.2025 Celtic Glasgow 2:0 Dundee United

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Celtic Glasgow enter this Premiership fixture as the clearly stronger side, with their league position and home record providing a solid basis for that assessment. They sit first with 28 points from 11 matches and have won four of their last five games, scoring 12 goals and conceding only three. Their performances at home have been particularly convincing: four wins from five matches, with 13 goals scored and just three conceded. Celtic Glasgow have also shown an ability to create significantly more chances than they allow, which could be a decisive factor against an opponent that has been less dominant away from home.

Dundee United arrive in reasonable form, having won three and drawn two of their last five matches without a defeat. They have scored nine goals and conceded four during that run, suggesting they can offer an attacking threat. However, their away record is more balanced, with two wins, one draw and two losses, alongside eight goals scored and eight conceded. The historical record offers a caution for Celtic Glasgow, as Dundee United won the most recent meeting 2-0 in 2026. Nevertheless, the overall balance favours the hosts, whose stronger home performances and defensive record make them the more convincing side. A match with several goals is plausible, and Dundee United may have opportunities to score, although Celtic Glasgow have the clearer path to controlling the contest.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Recent Match Result

Celtic enter this fixture coming off a 2-1 away victory against Hibernian, with Camilo Durán scoring the winning goal.

Match fact

Head-to-Head History

Celtic have won five of their last seven encounters against Dundee United across all competitions, including a 4-0 League Cup win in August.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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