Celtic Glasgow — Dundee United: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.0% |
| 12 | 86.2% | |
| X2 | 22.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.5% / 2.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.5% / 28.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.3% / 68.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.10.2026
Celtic Glasgow
1st place · 28 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Hibernian 2:1
- 18.10.2026 home Hearts 7:1
- 11.10.2026 away Motherwell 2:0
- 20.09.2026 home Rangers 0:1
- 09.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:0
Dundee United
4th place · 15 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Aberdeen 3:2
- 17.10.2026 away St Johnstone 1:1
- 10.10.2026 home Hibernian 1:0
- 19.09.2026 away St Mirren 3:0
- 05.09.2026 home Falkirk 1:1
This season: Celtic Glasgow at home vs Dundee United away
| Metric | Celtic Glasgow · at home | Dundee United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 4–0–1 | 2–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| xG for per match | 2.56 | 1.37 |
| xG against per match | 0.82 | 1.48 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.80 | 4.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 Dundee United 2:0 Celtic Glasgow
- 10.01.2026 Celtic Glasgow 4:0 Dundee United
- 17.12.2025 Dundee United 2:1 Celtic Glasgow
- 26.04.2025 Dundee United 0:5 Celtic Glasgow
- 15.02.2025 Celtic Glasgow 3:0 Dundee United
- 08.01.2025 Celtic Glasgow 2:0 Dundee United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Celtic Glasgow enter this Premiership fixture as the clearly stronger side, with their league position and home record providing a solid basis for that assessment. They sit first with 28 points from 11 matches and have won four of their last five games, scoring 12 goals and conceding only three. Their performances at home have been particularly convincing: four wins from five matches, with 13 goals scored and just three conceded. Celtic Glasgow have also shown an ability to create significantly more chances than they allow, which could be a decisive factor against an opponent that has been less dominant away from home.
Dundee United arrive in reasonable form, having won three and drawn two of their last five matches without a defeat. They have scored nine goals and conceded four during that run, suggesting they can offer an attacking threat. However, their away record is more balanced, with two wins, one draw and two losses, alongside eight goals scored and eight conceded. The historical record offers a caution for Celtic Glasgow, as Dundee United won the most recent meeting 2-0 in 2026. Nevertheless, the overall balance favours the hosts, whose stronger home performances and defensive record make them the more convincing side. A match with several goals is plausible, and Dundee United may have opportunities to score, although Celtic Glasgow have the clearer path to controlling the contest.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Match Result
Celtic enter this fixture coming off a 2-1 away victory against Hibernian, with Camilo Durán scoring the winning goal.
Head-to-Head History
Celtic have won five of their last seven encounters against Dundee United across all competitions, including a 4-0 League Cup win in August.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
