Dundee FC — Kilmarnock FC: Win probabilities, 28.10.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.10.2026
Dundee FC
5th place · 14 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away St Mirren 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Rangers 2:2
- 10.10.2026 away Falkirk 2:1
- 19.09.2026 home Motherwell 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Hearts 1:2
Kilmarnock FC
11th place · 9 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Falkirk 0:3
- 17.10.2026 home Motherwell 3:2
- 10.10.2026 away Rangers 1:3
- 19.09.2026 home Hearts 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Hibernian 1:0
This season: Dundee FC at home vs Kilmarnock FC away
| Metric | Dundee FC · at home | Kilmarnock FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–1 | 1–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.60 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.62 | 1.33 |
| xG against per match | 1.42 | 1.47 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| Corners per match | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.05.2026 Kilmarnock FC 3:1 Dundee FC
- 11.04.2026 Kilmarnock FC 2:2 Dundee FC
- 30.12.2025 Dundee FC 2:1 Kilmarnock FC
- 23.08.2025 Kilmarnock FC 0:0 Dundee FC
- 10.05.2025 Kilmarnock FC 3:2 Dundee FC
- 30.11.2024 Kilmarnock FC 1:1 Dundee FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Dundee FC have a slight edge over Kilmarnock FC ahead of their Premiership meeting, with home advantage and a stronger league position supporting their case. Dundee FC sit fifth with 14 points from 10 matches, while Kilmarnock FC are 11th with nine points from 11 games. Recent form is similar, with both sides recording two wins, one draw and two defeats across their last five matches, although their defensive records differ: Dundee FC conceded eight goals, compared with nine for Kilmarnock FC.
Dundee FC have been relatively competitive at home, winning two of five matches and drawing two, while scoring eight goals. Kilmarnock FC have found away fixtures more difficult, with one win, two draws and three defeats in six games, conceding 10 goals. These records give the hosts a reasonable platform, but neither side has demonstrated consistent control, with chances created and allowed roughly level for both teams in their respective home and away settings.
The head-to-head record also suggests a potentially open contest. Both teams scored in five of the last six meetings, and four featured more than two goals. Kilmarnock FC won the most recent encounter 3-1 in 2026, providing a reminder that Dundee FC cannot take their advantage for granted. A competitive match with opportunities at both ends looks plausible, with Dundee FC marginally better placed to secure a positive result.
What matters before kick-off
Recent weekend match results
In their previous Scottish Premiership matches, Dundee suffered a 2-1 defeat away at St Mirren, while Kilmarnock were beaten 3-0 on the road by Falkirk.
League standings context
Heading into matchday 11 of the Premiership season, Dundee sit 5th in the standings with 14 points, while Kilmarnock are 11th with 8 points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.