St Mirren FC — Dundee United: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.3% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
St Mirren FC
4th place · 11 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.09.2026 away Rangers 0:1
- 05.09.2026 home Celtic 1:2
- 02.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Motherwell 3:3
- 22.08.2026 away Rangers 0:0
Dundee United
11th place · 5 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Falkirk 1:1
- 02.09.2026 away Motherwell 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Kilmarnock 4:0
- 22.08.2026 home Dundee 0:2
- 09.08.2026 away Hearts 0:4
This season: St Mirren FC at home vs Dundee United away
| Metric | St Mirren FC · at home | Dundee United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–1 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.80 | 1.41 |
| xG against per match | 2.06 | 1.76 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 St Mirren FC 1:1 Dundee United
- 03.03.2026 Dundee United 2:1 St Mirren FC
- 06.12.2025 St Mirren FC 2:0 Dundee United
- 25.10.2025 Dundee United 3:1 St Mirren FC
- 10.05.2025 Dundee United 0:2 St Mirren FC
- 11.01.2025 St Mirren FC 0:1 Dundee United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
St Mirren FC host Dundee United in a Premiership meeting that appears evenly matched. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a decisive overall advantage. That suggests the contest could be shaped by small moments, particularly in a fixture where the balance between home and away strengths is difficult to separate.
The scoring outlook is more open than cautious, with both teams likely to find the net. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1 and 1:2, reflecting a game that may remain competitive through the later stages rather than settling into a one-sided pattern. St Mirren FC may have a slight advantage from playing at home, but Dundee United have a credible route to taking something from the match. A draw remains a realistic central scenario, while the 1X signal gives the hosts some protection in the overall assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Form heading into the match
St Mirren enter the match following back-to-back Scottish Premiership defeats against Celtic and Rangers. Dundee United drew 1-1 with Falkirk in their previous league fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.