Dundee FC — Motherwell FC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.4% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.1% / 17.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.3% / 63.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.9% / 91.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Dundee FC
8th place · 7 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Hearts 1:2
- 02.09.2026 home St Johnstone 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Hibernian 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Dundee United 2:0
- 08.08.2026 home Aberdeen 2:0
Motherwell FC
5th place · 9 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.09.2026 home Aberdeen 0:4
- 05.09.2026 away Rangers 0:1
- 02.09.2026 home Dundee United 3:0
- 30.08.2026 away St Mirren 3:3
- 22.08.2026 home Aberdeen 0:0
This season: Dundee FC at home vs Motherwell FC away
| Metric | Dundee FC · at home | Motherwell FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–1 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.66 | 1.54 |
| xG against per match | 1.40 | 2.72 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.03.2026 Dundee FC 2:1 Motherwell FC
- 20.12.2025 Motherwell FC 1:0 Dundee FC
- 13.09.2025 Dundee FC 1:1 Motherwell FC
- 03.05.2025 Dundee FC 1:2 Motherwell FC
- 26.02.2025 Motherwell FC 2:1 Dundee FC
- 04.12.2024 Dundee FC 4:1 Motherwell FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Dundee FC host Motherwell FC in the Premiership on 19 September 2026, with the available assessment giving Motherwell FC a slight edge. The confidence is moderate rather than emphatic, so the match appears open to more than one outcome. The signal points towards Motherwell FC avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a credible possibility.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That suggests Dundee FC should have opportunities to contribute, even though Motherwell FC are rated marginally stronger in the overall result assessment. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1, reflecting a contest that could remain close while still offering the visitors a route to victory. Overall, Motherwell FC hold the clearer edge, but the balance of the game does not point to a one-sided encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Scottish Premiership fixture
Dundee host Motherwell at Dens Park in round seven of the Scottish Premiership season.
Dundee suspension
Dundee midfielder Zan Besir is unavailable following a red card received in their previous match against Hearts.
Recent team results
Dundee come into the game following a 2-1 defeat to Hearts, while Motherwell suffered a 4-0 home defeat against Aberdeen in midweek.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.