Hibernian FC — Aberdeen FC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.9% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 44.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.7% / 18.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.6% / 64.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Hibernian FC
9th place · 7 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.09.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:1
- 06.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:2
- 03.09.2026 home Hearts 1:3
- 30.08.2026 away Dundee 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:0
Aberdeen FC
7th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.09.2026 away Motherwell 4:0
- 05.09.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:0
- 02.09.2026 away Celtic 0:3
- 30.08.2026 home Rangers 0:1
- 22.08.2026 away Motherwell 0:0
This season: Hibernian FC at home vs Aberdeen FC away
| Metric | Hibernian FC · at home | Aberdeen FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–3 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.64 | 0.76 |
| xG against per match | 1.59 | 1.82 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 10.33 | 3.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2026 Aberdeen FC 2:0 Hibernian FC
- 30.12.2025 Hibernian FC 2:0 Aberdeen FC
- 26.10.2025 Aberdeen FC 1:2 Hibernian FC
- 26.04.2025 Aberdeen FC 1:0 Hibernian FC
- 01.02.2025 Hibernian FC 2:0 Aberdeen FC
- 21.12.2024 Aberdeen FC 1:3 Hibernian FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Hibernian FC have a slight edge over Aberdeen FC in this Premiership meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a strong expectation of a home victory. The available assessment gives Hibernian FC the more favourable outcome signal, but the margin between the sides appears limited.
The scoring outlook is for a medium-scoring match, with 1:1, 2:1 and 1:0 identified as the most likely scorelines. That range reflects some uncertainty over how the game will develop: a narrow home win is possible, but a draw remains a prominent scenario. The assessment also treats both teams scoring as evenly balanced, so it does not establish a clear expectation that either side will find the net. Overall, Hibernian FC hold the more positive position in the forecast, while Aberdeen FC remain well placed to keep the match competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Managerial change at Hibernian
David Gray departed his role as Hibernian head coach following a 1-0 defeat to Kilmarnock. John Potter takes interim charge of the team.
Aberdeen's convincing midweek victory
Aberdeen enter the fixture following an impressive 4-0 away win against Motherwell at Fir Park.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.