Kilmarnock FC — Heart of Midlothian FC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 45.0% |
| 12 | 75.9% | |
| X2 | 79.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.6% / 15.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.6% / 37.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.4% / 59.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.5% / 77.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Kilmarnock FC
12th place · 5 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.09.2026 away Hibernian 1:0
- 05.09.2026 away Aberdeen 0:0
- 02.09.2026 home St Mirren 0:1
- 29.08.2026 home Dundee United 0:4
- 22.08.2026 away Hibernian 0:0
Heart of Midlothian FC
3rd place · 13 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.09.2026 away Falkirk 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Dundee 2:1
- 03.09.2026 away Hibernian 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home St Johnstone 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Falkirk 0:0
This season: Kilmarnock FC at home vs Heart of Midlothian FC away
| Metric | Kilmarnock FC · at home | Heart of Midlothian FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–3 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.33 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.33 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 0.77 | 1.46 |
| xG against per match | 3.41 | 2.13 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.03.2026 Kilmarnock FC 1:0 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 03.12.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 1:1 Kilmarnock FC
- 18.10.2025 Kilmarnock FC 0:3 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 18.05.2025 Kilmarnock FC 0:1 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 25.01.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 3:2 Kilmarnock FC
- 15.12.2024 Kilmarnock FC 1:0 Heart of Midlothian FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Kilmarnock FC host Heart of Midlothian FC in a Premiership fixture that points towards an open and competitive contest. The available assessment gives Heart of Midlothian FC a slight edge, although the moderate confidence indicates that the gap between the teams should not be overstated. Kilmarnock FC remain capable of making the match difficult, particularly if they can turn the home setting into an advantage.
The scoring outlook is notably positive, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests a game with chances at both ends rather than a cautious, low-event battle. A balanced draw remains a credible scenario, while a narrow away win is also consistent with the assessment. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1 and 1:2, with 0:2 another possible outcome if Heart of Midlothian FC make better use of their opportunities. Overall, the BTTS signal points to an engaging match in which neither defence can expect an entirely quiet afternoon.
What matters before kick-off
Kilmarnock's First League Win
Kilmarnock secured their first Scottish Premiership victory of the season on Tuesday night with a 1-0 away win against Hibernian, thanks to a goal from George Stanger.
Kilmarnock Squad Availability
Kilmarnock defender Robbie Deas remains sidelined with a foot injury, while forward Djenairo Daniels is suspended following his red card against Hibernian.
Hearts Injury List
Heart of Midlothian continue to deal with several injury absentees, including Tom Renaud, Craig Halkett, Malachi Fagan-Walcott, and Ageu.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.