St. Johnstone FC — Falkirk FC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.7% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 54.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.4% / 23.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
St. Johnstone FC
6th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.09.2026 home Celtic 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Hibernian 2:1
- 02.09.2026 away Dundee 1:1
- 29.08.2026 away Hearts 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Celtic 0:0
Falkirk FC
10th place · 6 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.09.2026 home Hearts 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Dundee United 1:1
- 02.09.2026 home Rangers 1:2
- 29.08.2026 away Celtic 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Hearts 0:0
This season: St. Johnstone FC at home vs Falkirk FC away
| Metric | St. Johnstone FC · at home | Falkirk FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 0–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.68 | 0.61 |
| xG against per match | 1.58 | 2.01 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
St. Johnstone FC welcome Falkirk FC in a Premiership meeting that looks finely balanced but gives the hosts a slight edge. The overall assessment points toward a competitive contest, with St. Johnstone FC having enough support to be preferred, though not by a margin that removes the possibility of a draw. The most relevant result protection therefore leans toward the home side avoiding defeat.
The match is projected to produce a moderate number of goals rather than becoming either a low-event stalemate or an open shootout. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so that aspect remains evenly poised. The likeliest scorelines reflect the narrow balance of the fixture: 1:1 is the leading possibility, with 1:0 and 2:1 also fitting the expected pattern. Falkirk FC should remain competitive, while St. Johnstone FC may have the stronger platform at home.
What matters before kick-off
St Johnstone's previous match
In their last Scottish Premiership fixture, St Johnstone suffered a 0-1 home defeat against Celtic.
Falkirk's previous match
Falkirk enter the match following a 2-1 victory over Hearts, secured by Owen Eames's 68th-minute winning goal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.