Hibernian FC — Kilmarnock FC: Win probabilities, 15.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.9% |
| 12 | 81.5% | |
| X2 | 31.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.7% / 42.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.9% / 14.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.09.2026
Hibernian FC
8th place · 7 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:2
- 03.09.2026 home Hearts 1:3
- 30.08.2026 away Dundee 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:0
- 09.08.2026 away Rangers 2:1
Kilmarnock FC
12th place · 2 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Aberdeen 0:0
- 02.09.2026 home St Mirren 0:1
- 29.08.2026 home Dundee United 0:4
- 22.08.2026 away Hibernian 0:0
- 09.08.2026 home Celtic 1:5
This season: Hibernian FC at home vs Kilmarnock FC away
| Metric | Hibernian FC · at home | Kilmarnock FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–2 | 0–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 1.81 | 0.86 |
| xG against per match | 1.41 | 1.31 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.08.2026 Hibernian FC 0:0 Kilmarnock FC
- 04.04.2026 Hibernian FC 3:0 Kilmarnock FC
- 03.01.2026 Kilmarnock FC 1:3 Hibernian FC
- 10.08.2025 Hibernian FC 2:2 Kilmarnock FC
- 15.03.2025 Kilmarnock FC 1:1 Hibernian FC
- 29.12.2024 Hibernian FC 1:0 Kilmarnock FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Hibernian FC meet Kilmarnock FC in the Premiership with the available assessment giving the hosts a clear, though not overwhelming, advantage. The moderate confidence level suggests that Hibernian FC are the stronger side on this reading, but the outlook still leaves room for a competitive contest rather than a straightforward outcome. The market signal also points towards a home win, while the balance between the teams is not presented as completely one-sided.
The scoring profile indicates a potentially open match, with a high-scoring game considered more likely than a tightly controlled encounter. At the same time, the expectation of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop in either direction in that respect. The most prominent scorelines are 2:0 and 2:1 in favour of Hibernian FC, with 1:1 also among the plausible outcomes. Kilmarnock FC therefore remain capable of keeping the contest close, particularly if they limit the hosts’ attacking opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Hibernian League Cup success
On September 12, 2026, Hibernian advanced to the Premier Sports Cup semi-finals following a 3-0 victory away to Ross County.
Kilmarnock League Cup exit
Kilmarnock were eliminated from the Premier Sports Cup in the quarter-finals, losing 3-1 on penalties to Aberdeen after a 1-1 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.