Motherwell FC — Aberdeen FC: Win probabilities, 15.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.3% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 46.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.5% / 5.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.9% / 64.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.09.2026
Motherwell FC
5th place · 9 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Rangers 0:1
- 02.09.2026 home Dundee United 3:0
- 30.08.2026 away St Mirren 3:3
- 22.08.2026 home Aberdeen 0:0
- 09.08.2026 home Falkirk 0:0
Aberdeen FC
10th place · 5 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:0
- 02.09.2026 away Celtic 0:3
- 30.08.2026 home Rangers 0:1
- 22.08.2026 away Motherwell 0:0
- 08.08.2026 away Dundee 0:2
This season: Motherwell FC at home vs Aberdeen FC away
| Metric | Motherwell FC · at home | Aberdeen FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–0 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| xG for per match | 1.52 | 0.69 |
| xG against per match | 0.32 | 2.35 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 2.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.08.2026 Motherwell FC 0:0 Aberdeen FC
- 15.02.2026 Motherwell FC 2:0 Aberdeen FC
- 09.11.2025 Aberdeen FC 1:1 Motherwell FC
- 27.09.2025 Motherwell FC 2:0 Aberdeen FC
- 29.03.2025 Aberdeen FC 4:1 Motherwell FC
- 05.01.2025 Motherwell FC 2:0 Aberdeen FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Motherwell FC meet Aberdeen FC in the Premiership with the hosts carrying a clear but narrow edge in the pre-match assessment. The outlook points towards a competitive contest rather than a one-sided performance, with the home side slightly better placed to control the match and make the most of its opportunities. The available signal supports Motherwell FC avoiding defeat, while a draw remains a credible possibility.
The scoring profile suggests a match with a moderate number of goals, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That combination should produce an open enough rhythm, although neither side is projected to dominate consistently. Aberdeen FC have a realistic path to taking something from the game, particularly if they can maintain their attacking threat, but the overall balance gives Motherwell FC the stronger position. A narrow home victory or a scoring draw fits the assessment more closely than a decisive result for either team.
What matters before kick-off
Scottish Premiership fixture
The rescheduled Scottish Premiership fixture between Motherwell and Aberdeen is scheduled for Tuesday, September 15, 2026, at Fir Park.
Recent cup and league form
Aberdeen enter the match following a penalty shootout victory against Kilmarnock in the League Cup, ending a four-game winless run in the league, while Motherwell's last fixture was a 1-0 defeat to Rangers.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.