St Mirren FC — Dundee FC: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.8% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 57.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.6% / 18.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.3% / 63.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.2% / 80.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.8% / 91.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
St Mirren FC
8th place · 11 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Aberdeen 1:3
- 10.10.2026 away Hearts 0:5
- 19.09.2026 home Dundee United 0:3
- 09.09.2026 away Rangers 0:1
- 05.09.2026 home Celtic 1:2
Dundee FC
4th place · 14 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Rangers 2:2
- 10.10.2026 away Falkirk 2:1
- 19.09.2026 home Motherwell 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Hearts 1:2
- 02.09.2026 home St Johnstone 1:1
This season: St Mirren FC at home vs Dundee FC away
| Metric | St Mirren FC · at home | Dundee FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 2–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.57 | 1.02 |
| xG against per match | 1.92 | 1.91 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.75 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.05.2026 Dundee FC 1:0 St Mirren FC
- 31.01.2026 St Mirren FC 0:0 Dundee FC
- 29.11.2025 Dundee FC 3:1 St Mirren FC
- 27.09.2025 St Mirren FC 1:0 Dundee FC
- 05.04.2025 Dundee FC 2:0 St Mirren FC
- 29.12.2024 St Mirren FC 1:2 Dundee FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 3.00 → now 2.90 |
Match preview
St Mirren FC head into this Premiership fixture against Dundee FC with a slight home advantage, although their recent form raises significant concerns. The hosts have lost their last five matches, scoring just 2 goals while conceding 14. They sit eighth in the table with 11 points from 10 games, and their home record offers limited reassurance, with one win, one draw and two defeats in four matches. Their ability to create chances has been roughly level with the opportunities they allow, suggesting that defensive improvement will be important if they are to compete effectively.
Dundee FC arrive in considerably better form, having recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat across their last five matches. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 7 during that run, while their fourth-place position with 14 points from nine games reflects a stronger overall start. Their away record is mixed, with two wins and two losses, and they have allowed more chances than they have created on the road. That vulnerability could give St Mirren FC opportunities to respond despite their poor recent results.
Dundee FC won the last meeting 1-0, and the recent head-to-head record also favours the visitors. However, St Mirren FC retain a slight edge in this particular assessment. An open contest with chances at both ends looks plausible, with the hosts needing a more disciplined defensive display to turn that advantage into a positive result.
What matters before kick-off
St Mirren's Agrafiotis sidelined with injury
St Mirren manager Craig McLeish confirmed that striker Nikolas Agrafiotis will be out until at least early December due to a calf tear. Eseosa Sule is expected to step into the starting role after scoring in their previous match against Aberdeen.
St Mirren return to home action
St Mirren host Dundee in the Scottish Premiership for their first home fixture in over a month.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.