Match intelligence

Hibernian FC — Celtic Glasgow: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

League: Premiership (Scotland) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Hibernian FC1
:
2Celtic Glasgow
Locked signal BTTS Probability 61.2% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 18.8% Home win Hibernian FC
X 20.8% Draw
W2 60.4% Away win Celtic Glasgow
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X281.2%
Both teams to score
Yes61.2%
Totals 2.5
Over64.9%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X39.6%
1279.2%
X281.2%
Both teams to scoreYes/No61.2% / 38.8%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 96.1% / 3.9%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 85.1% / 14.9%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 64.9% / 35.1%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 42.9% / 57.1%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 24.6% / 75.4%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 12.2% / 87.8%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Hibernian FC × Celtic Glasgow
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 3.9%
0:1 7.3%
0:2 8.4%
0:3 6.2%
0:4 3.4%
0:5 1.5%
1
1:0 3.7%
1:1 9.3%
1:2 9.8%
1:3 7.1%
1:4 3.9%
1:5 1.7%
2
2:0 2.4%
2:1 5.2%
2:2 5.6%
2:3 4.1%
2:4 2.3%
2:5 1.0%
3
3:0 0.9%
3:1 2.0%
3:2 2.2%
3:3 1.6%
3:4 0.9%
3:5 0.4%
4
4:0 0.3%
4:1 0.6%
4:2 0.6%
4:3 0.5%
4:4 0.3%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.1%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:29.8%
1:19.3%
0:28.4%
0:17.3%
1:37.1%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026

Hibernian FC

12th place · 8 pts after 10

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.10.2026 home Falkirk 1:2
  • 10.10.2026 away Dundee United 0:1
  • 19.09.2026 home Aberdeen 1:1
  • 15.09.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:1
  • 06.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:2

Celtic Glasgow

1st place · 25 pts after 10

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 18.10.2026 home Hearts 7:1
  • 11.10.2026 away Motherwell 2:0
  • 20.09.2026 home Rangers 0:1
  • 09.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:0
  • 05.09.2026 away St Mirren 2:1

This season: Hibernian FC at home vs Celtic Glasgow away

Metric Hibernian FC · at home Celtic Glasgow · away
Matches65
W–D–L0–2–44–1–0
Goals scored per match0.672.00
Goals conceded per match1.500.40
xG for per match1.543.41
xG against per match1.261.10
Shots on target per match4.4012.00
Corners per match8.609.25
Over 2.5 goals50%40%
Both teams scored67%40%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Hibernian FC wins2
Draws1
Celtic Glasgow wins3
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
  • 03.05.2026 Hibernian FC 1:2 Celtic Glasgow
  • 22.02.2026 Celtic Glasgow 1:2 Hibernian FC
  • 30.11.2025 Hibernian FC 1:2 Celtic Glasgow
  • 27.09.2025 Celtic Glasgow 0:0 Hibernian FC
  • 10.05.2025 Celtic Glasgow 3:1 Hibernian FC
  • 22.02.2025 Hibernian FC 2:1 Celtic Glasgow

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

Odds movement

W1 was 5.25 → now 4.75
X was 4.50 → now 4.33
W2 was 1.53 → now 1.60
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Hibernian FC face a difficult challenge against Celtic Glasgow in the Premiership, with the visitors holding a clear advantage in recent form and overall consistency. Hibernian FC have lost four of their last five matches, drawing once and scoring just three goals while conceding seven. Their home record offers little reassurance, with no wins in six league matches at home, alongside two draws and four defeats. Sitting 12th in the table after ten games, Hibernian FC need a significant improvement to compete with the league leaders.

Celtic Glasgow arrive in much stronger shape, having won four of their last five matches and scored 12 goals while conceding only three. Their away performances have been particularly convincing: four wins and one draw from five matches, with ten goals scored and just two conceded. They also create clearly more chances than they allow, suggesting their attacking pressure could expose Hibernian FC's defensive weaknesses. The visitors therefore hold a moderate but meaningful edge, although the hosts may still find opportunities to contribute offensively.

The recent head-to-head record supports the prospect of an open contest, with both teams scoring in five of the last six meetings. The most recent encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for Celtic Glasgow, reinforcing the visitors' advantage. A competitive match with goals from both sides is a reasonable expectation, while Celtic Glasgow appear better positioned to secure the result.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Celtic's recent fixtures

Celtic enter the Scottish Premiership fixture following a 2-1 home loss to Celta Vigo in the Europa League, though they defeated Hearts 7-1 in their previous league match.

Team news

Hibernian team news

Hibernian face several squad absences ahead of the match, with Rocky Bushiri, Jordan Obita, Callum Wright, Nathan Lowe, and Kanayo Megwa sidelined through injury.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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