Motherwell FC — Heart of Midlothian FC: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.4% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 71.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.3% / 16.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.3% / 38.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.0% / 61.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.3% / 78.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Motherwell FC
10th place · 9 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Kilmarnock 2:3
- 11.10.2026 home Celtic 0:2
- 19.09.2026 away Dundee 1:2
- 15.09.2026 home Aberdeen 0:4
- 05.09.2026 away Rangers 0:1
Heart of Midlothian FC
3rd place · 17 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Celtic 1:7
- 10.10.2026 home St Mirren 5:0
- 19.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Falkirk 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Dundee 2:1
This season: Motherwell FC at home vs Heart of Midlothian FC away
| Metric | Motherwell FC · at home | Heart of Midlothian FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–2 | 1–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.60 | 1.17 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 2.17 |
| xG for per match | 1.21 | 1.47 |
| xG against per match | 1.10 | 2.17 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 83% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.05.2026 Motherwell FC 1:1 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 11.04.2026 Heart of Midlothian FC 3:1 Motherwell FC
- 29.11.2025 Motherwell FC 0:0 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 23.08.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 3:3 Motherwell FC
- 10.05.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 3:0 Motherwell FC
- 12.04.2025 Motherwell FC 0:0 Heart of Midlothian FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.10 → now 3.25 |
| W2 | was 2.15 → now 2.05 |
Match preview
Motherwell FC face Heart of Midlothian FC in the Premiership on 25 October, with the visitors holding a slight advantage despite some concerns about their away performances. Motherwell FC have lost their last five matches, scoring just 3 goals while conceding 12. That difficult run has left them 10th in the league with 9 points from 10 matches. Heart of Midlothian FC occupy 3rd place with 17 points, having recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats across their last five outings.
The visitors' stronger league position provides a reasonable basis for favouring them, but their away record suggests a competitive contest. Heart of Midlothian FC have won just once in six away matches, conceding 13 goals, and have generally allowed more chances than they create on their travels. Motherwell FC have also struggled defensively, although their chance creation and concession at home are roughly balanced.
The overall outlook points towards an open encounter with goals at both ends. Previous meetings offer some support for a close contest, with four draws in the last six encounters, including the most recent 1-1 result. Heart of Midlothian FC have a moderate edge, making an away win or draw the more appealing overall direction.
What matters before kick-off
Motherwell's losing run
Motherwell, managed by Alfred Johansson, enter the fixture seeking to end a five-game losing streak in the Scottish Premiership.
Hearts' recent fixtures
Heart of Midlothian enter the match following back-to-back defeats in all competitions, including a 2-0 away loss to Trabzonspor in the Conference League on Thursday.
Head-to-head record
Heart of Midlothian are undefeated in their last seven matches against Motherwell across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.