St Mirren FC — Celtic Glasgow: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 30.3% |
| 12 | 81.2% | |
| X2 | 88.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.1% / 29.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.8% / 70.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
St Mirren FC face Celtic Glasgow in a Premiership meeting where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge. The available assessment points towards an away win, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match should be approached with some caution rather than treated as predictable. St Mirren FC will need to stay compact and make effective use of their opportunities, while Celtic Glasgow are expected to carry the stronger attacking threat.
The scoring outlook is relatively open, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes a high-scoring contest more plausible than a tightly controlled match, particularly if an early goal changes the balance. The most prominent scoreline indications are 1:2 and 0:2, while 1:1 remains a possible alternative if St Mirren FC can limit Celtic Glasgow's influence and convert their chances. Overall, Celtic Glasgow have the advantage, but the expected attacking character leaves room for a competitive game.
What matters before kick-off
Celtic's recent result
Celtic enter the fixture against St Mirren following a comfortable 3-0 home victory over Aberdeen in midweek Premiership action.
Match venue and schedule
The Scottish Premiership clash between St Mirren and Celtic is scheduled for September 5 at St Mirren Park in Paisley.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.