St Mirren FC — Celtic Glasgow: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 30.3% |
| 12 | 81.2% | |
| X2 | 88.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.1% / 29.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.8% / 70.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
St Mirren FC
2nd place · 11 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Motherwell 3:3
- 22.08.2026 away Rangers 0:0
- 08.08.2026 home St Johnstone 1:0
- 01.08.2026 away Falkirk 2:0
Celtic Glasgow
1st place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 home Aberdeen 3:0
- 29.08.2026 home Falkirk 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away St Johnstone 0:0
- 09.08.2026 away Kilmarnock 5:1
- 03.08.2026 home Dundee 1:0
This season: St Mirren FC at home vs Celtic Glasgow away
| Metric | St Mirren FC · at home | Celtic Glasgow · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.84 | 5.64 |
| xG against per match | 1.62 | 0.85 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 16.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2026 Celtic Glasgow 1:0 St Mirren FC
- 22.11.2025 St Mirren FC 0:1 Celtic Glasgow
- 03.08.2025 Celtic Glasgow 1:0 St Mirren FC
- 17.05.2025 Celtic Glasgow 1:1 St Mirren FC
- 01.03.2025 St Mirren FC 2:5 Celtic Glasgow
- 05.01.2025 Celtic Glasgow 3:0 St Mirren FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
St Mirren FC face Celtic Glasgow in a Premiership meeting where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge. The available assessment points towards an away win, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match should be approached with some caution rather than treated as predictable. St Mirren FC will need to stay compact and make effective use of their opportunities, while Celtic Glasgow are expected to carry the stronger attacking threat.
The scoring outlook is relatively open, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes a high-scoring contest more plausible than a tightly controlled match, particularly if an early goal changes the balance. The most prominent scoreline indications are 1:2 and 0:2, while 1:1 remains a possible alternative if St Mirren FC can limit Celtic Glasgow's influence and convert their chances. Overall, Celtic Glasgow have the advantage, but the expected attacking character leaves room for a competitive game.
What matters before kick-off
Celtic's recent result
Celtic enter the fixture against St Mirren following a comfortable 3-0 home victory over Aberdeen in midweek Premiership action.
Match venue and schedule
The Scottish Premiership clash between St Mirren and Celtic is scheduled for September 5 at St Mirren Park in Paisley.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.