Hibernian FC — Heart of Midlothian FC: Win probabilities, 03.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.5% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.6% / 17.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.0% / 62.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Hibernian FC and Heart of Midlothian FC appear evenly matched ahead of their Premiership meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear advantage, with only a moderate level of confidence in the overall reading. That points to a contest where small moments and changes in momentum could carry significant weight, rather than one likely to be controlled comfortably by either side.
The scoring outlook is more decisive than the result assessment. This is viewed as a high-scoring fixture, with both Hibernian FC and Heart of Midlothian FC likely to find the net. The combination of an open attacking pattern and balanced outcome signals makes a closely fought game plausible, with the draw remaining a credible possibility while the hosts hold a slight protection against defeat. Neither team stands out as clearly stronger, so the match may remain competitive deep into the game.
What matters before kick-off
Edinburgh Derby History
The Edinburgh derby between Heart of Midlothian and Hibernian is one of the longest-running rivalries in world football, dating back to their first meeting on Christmas Day in 1875.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.