Hibernian FC — Heart of Midlothian FC: Win probabilities, 03.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.5% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.6% / 17.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.0% / 62.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 03.09.2026
Hibernian FC
7th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Dundee 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:0
- 09.08.2026 away Rangers 2:1
- 02.08.2026 home Motherwell 1:2
- 16.05.2026 home Motherwell 0:1
Heart of Midlothian FC
5th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home St Johnstone 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Falkirk 0:0
- 09.08.2026 home Dundee United 4:0
- 01.08.2026 away Aberdeen 1:2
- 16.05.2026 away Celtic 1:3
This season: Hibernian FC at home vs Heart of Midlothian FC away
| Metric | Hibernian FC · at home | Heart of Midlothian FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| xG against per match | 2.00 | 2.66 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.04.2026 Hibernian FC 1:2 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 10.02.2026 Heart of Midlothian FC 1:0 Hibernian FC
- 27.12.2025 Hibernian FC 3:2 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 04.10.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 1:0 Hibernian FC
- 02.03.2025 Hibernian FC 2:1 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 26.12.2024 Heart of Midlothian FC 1:2 Hibernian FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Hibernian FC and Heart of Midlothian FC appear evenly matched ahead of their Premiership meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear advantage, with only a moderate level of confidence in the overall reading. That points to a contest where small moments and changes in momentum could carry significant weight, rather than one likely to be controlled comfortably by either side.
The scoring outlook is more decisive than the result assessment. This is viewed as a high-scoring fixture, with both Hibernian FC and Heart of Midlothian FC likely to find the net. The combination of an open attacking pattern and balanced outcome signals makes a closely fought game plausible, with the draw remaining a credible possibility while the hosts hold a slight protection against defeat. Neither team stands out as clearly stronger, so the match may remain competitive deep into the game.
What matters before kick-off
Edinburgh Derby History
The Edinburgh derby between Heart of Midlothian and Hibernian is one of the longest-running rivalries in world football, dating back to their first meeting on Christmas Day in 1875.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.