Aberdeen FC — Kilmarnock FC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.4% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 42.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.3% / 16.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.3% / 61.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Aberdeen FC
10th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 away Celtic 0:3
- 30.08.2026 home Rangers 0:1
- 22.08.2026 away Motherwell 0:0
- 08.08.2026 away Dundee 0:2
- 01.08.2026 home Hearts 2:1
Kilmarnock FC
12th place · 1 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 home St Mirren 0:1
- 29.08.2026 home Dundee United 0:4
- 22.08.2026 away Hibernian 0:0
- 09.08.2026 home Celtic 1:5
- 02.08.2026 away St Johnstone 3:4
This season: Aberdeen FC at home vs Kilmarnock FC away
| Metric | Aberdeen FC · at home | Kilmarnock FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.56 | 0.79 |
| xG against per match | 1.84 | 1.77 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.04.2026 Aberdeen FC 1:0 Kilmarnock FC
- 31.01.2026 Kilmarnock FC 3:0 Aberdeen FC
- 14.12.2025 Aberdeen FC 2:1 Kilmarnock FC
- 29.10.2025 Kilmarnock FC 0:1 Aberdeen FC
- 22.02.2025 Aberdeen FC 1:0 Kilmarnock FC
- 26.12.2024 Kilmarnock FC 4:0 Aberdeen FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Aberdeen FC have a slight edge over Kilmarnock FC in this Premiership meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a contest with a meaningful degree of uncertainty. The available assessment points towards a competitive match rather than a one-sided affair, with Aberdeen FC marginally better placed to impose themselves at home.
Goals are expected to be an important feature. Both teams are likely to score, while the overall scoring outlook favours an open game with chances at both ends. That makes the balance of the match particularly important: Kilmarnock FC should have opportunities to stay involved, but Aberdeen FC are given the stronger position in the projected outcome. The main scoreline possibilities include a draw and a narrow home victory, with a home win by a wider margin also considered.
What matters before kick-off
Aberdeen squad update
Aberdeen manager Stephen Robinson revealed centre-back Dan Happe is touch-and-go after missing the midweek trip to Celtic. Meanwhile, defender Mats Knoester returned from injury during that midweek match.
Midweek Premiership results
Both teams suffered defeats in midweek fixtures: Aberdeen lost 3-0 away to Celtic, while Kilmarnock were beaten 1-0 at home by St Mirren.
Aberdeen's home record against Kilmarnock
Aberdeen have won each of their last five home matches against Kilmarnock at Pittodrie Stadium.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.