Aberdeen FC — Kilmarnock FC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.4% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 42.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.3% / 16.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.3% / 61.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Aberdeen FC have a slight edge over Kilmarnock FC in this Premiership meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a contest with a meaningful degree of uncertainty. The available assessment points towards a competitive match rather than a one-sided affair, with Aberdeen FC marginally better placed to impose themselves at home.
Goals are expected to be an important feature. Both teams are likely to score, while the overall scoring outlook favours an open game with chances at both ends. That makes the balance of the match particularly important: Kilmarnock FC should have opportunities to stay involved, but Aberdeen FC are given the stronger position in the projected outcome. The main scoreline possibilities include a draw and a narrow home victory, with a home win by a wider margin also considered.
What matters before kick-off
Aberdeen squad update
Aberdeen manager Stephen Robinson revealed centre-back Dan Happe is touch-and-go after missing the midweek trip to Celtic. Meanwhile, defender Mats Knoester returned from injury during that midweek match.
Midweek Premiership results
Both teams suffered defeats in midweek fixtures: Aberdeen lost 3-0 away to Celtic, while Kilmarnock were beaten 1-0 at home by St Mirren.
Aberdeen's home record against Kilmarnock
Aberdeen have won each of their last five home matches against Kilmarnock at Pittodrie Stadium.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.