Heart of Midlothian FC — Dundee FC: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.1% |
| 12 | 79.9% | |
| X2 | 31.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.5% / 14.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.9% / 76.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Heart of Midlothian FC come into this Premiership meeting with a clear but not overwhelming analytical advantage over Dundee FC. The assessment points towards the hosts being stronger, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should be viewed with some caution rather than as a decisive gap. Dundee FC will still have a realistic opportunity to make the contest competitive, particularly if they can stay organised and limit the home side’s attacking opportunities.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, while the prospect of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. That combination leaves room for several plausible scenarios: a controlled home victory such as 2:0, a more closely contested 2:1 result, or a 1:1 draw if Dundee FC can withstand pressure and take advantage of their chances. Overall, the balance favours Heart of Midlothian FC, but the available signals do not remove the possibility of a competitive game.
What matters before kick-off
Recent win for Hearts
Hearts enter the match against Dundee FC following a 3-1 victory away to Hibernian in the Edinburgh derby in their previous Scottish Premiership fixture.
Dundee's previous result
Dundee FC head into the Tynecastle clash following a 1-1 home draw against St Johnstone in their preceding fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.