Heart of Midlothian FC — Dundee FC: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.1% |
| 12 | 79.9% | |
| X2 | 31.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.3% / 43.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.5% / 14.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.9% / 76.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Heart of Midlothian FC
4th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.09.2026 away Hibernian 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home St Johnstone 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Falkirk 0:0
- 09.08.2026 home Dundee United 4:0
- 01.08.2026 away Aberdeen 1:2
Dundee FC
6th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.09.2026 home St Johnstone 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Hibernian 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Dundee United 2:0
- 08.08.2026 home Aberdeen 2:0
- 03.08.2026 away Celtic 0:1
This season: Heart of Midlothian FC at home vs Dundee FC away
| Metric | Heart of Midlothian FC · at home | Dundee FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.91 | 1.08 |
| xG against per match | 0.85 | 1.90 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.50 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Heart of Midlothian FC 1:0 Dundee FC
- 11.01.2026 Dundee FC 0:1 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 01.11.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 4:0 Dundee FC
- 26.04.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 0:1 Dundee FC
- 01.02.2025 Dundee FC 0:6 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 07.12.2024 Heart of Midlothian FC 2:0 Dundee FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Heart of Midlothian FC come into this Premiership meeting with a clear but not overwhelming analytical advantage over Dundee FC. The assessment points towards the hosts being stronger, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should be viewed with some caution rather than as a decisive gap. Dundee FC will still have a realistic opportunity to make the contest competitive, particularly if they can stay organised and limit the home side’s attacking opportunities.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, while the prospect of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. That combination leaves room for several plausible scenarios: a controlled home victory such as 2:0, a more closely contested 2:1 result, or a 1:1 draw if Dundee FC can withstand pressure and take advantage of their chances. Overall, the balance favours Heart of Midlothian FC, but the available signals do not remove the possibility of a competitive game.
What matters before kick-off
Recent win for Hearts
Hearts enter the match against Dundee FC following a 3-1 victory away to Hibernian in the Edinburgh derby in their previous Scottish Premiership fixture.
Dundee's previous result
Dundee FC head into the Tynecastle clash following a 1-1 home draw against St Johnstone in their preceding fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.