Kilmarnock FC — St Mirren FC: Win probabilities, 02.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.9% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 62.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.2% / 59.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.3% / 77.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Kilmarnock FC and St Mirren FC look evenly matched ahead of their Premiership meeting on 2 September. The available assessment gives neither side a decisive advantage, with moderate confidence in a balanced contest. That points towards a match where the result may remain uncertain deep into the game rather than one team controlling the overall outlook.
The scoring profile suggests an open encounter, and both teams are likely to find the net. A draw is a realistic possibility, while St Mirren FC have a slight edge in the broader result signal because the assessment leans towards them avoiding defeat. The most plausible scorelines reflect that narrow balance, with 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1 all fitting the expected pattern. Kilmarnock FC should still have a credible route to victory, particularly if they make the most of their opportunities, but the overall picture favours a competitive match with chances at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
Kilmarnock's difficult start in the Premiership
Kilmarnock sit bottom of the Scottish Premiership table after losing their opening three league matches, including a 4-0 defeat at home to Dundee United.
St Mirren's unbeaten league start
St Mirren maintain a strong early position near the top of the Premiership table after an unbeaten start of two wins and one draw from three games.
Kilmarnock defensive injury concern
Kilmarnock defender Robbie Deas was sidelined with an injury picked up during their previous match against Dundee United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.