Kilmarnock FC — St Mirren FC: Win probabilities, 02.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.9% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 62.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.2% / 59.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.3% / 77.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.09.2026
Kilmarnock FC
12th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Dundee United 0:4
- 22.08.2026 away Hibernian 0:0
- 09.08.2026 home Celtic 1:5
- 02.08.2026 away St Johnstone 3:4
- 17.05.2026 away Livingston 4:1
St Mirren FC
2nd place · 8 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Motherwell 3:3
- 22.08.2026 away Rangers 0:0
- 08.08.2026 home St Johnstone 1:0
- 01.08.2026 away Falkirk 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Dundee United 1:1
This season: Kilmarnock FC at home vs St Mirren FC away
| Metric | Kilmarnock FC · at home | St Mirren FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.94 | 1.64 |
| xG against per match | 4.58 | 0.71 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.05.2026 St Mirren FC 0:3 Kilmarnock FC
- 11.02.2026 Kilmarnock FC 4:3 St Mirren FC
- 27.12.2025 St Mirren FC 0:0 Kilmarnock FC
- 04.10.2025 Kilmarnock FC 2:0 St Mirren FC
- 29.03.2025 St Mirren FC 5:1 Kilmarnock FC
- 02.01.2025 Kilmarnock FC 2:0 St Mirren FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Kilmarnock FC and St Mirren FC look evenly matched ahead of their Premiership meeting on 2 September. The available assessment gives neither side a decisive advantage, with moderate confidence in a balanced contest. That points towards a match where the result may remain uncertain deep into the game rather than one team controlling the overall outlook.
The scoring profile suggests an open encounter, and both teams are likely to find the net. A draw is a realistic possibility, while St Mirren FC have a slight edge in the broader result signal because the assessment leans towards them avoiding defeat. The most plausible scorelines reflect that narrow balance, with 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1 all fitting the expected pattern. Kilmarnock FC should still have a credible route to victory, particularly if they make the most of their opportunities, but the overall picture favours a competitive match with chances at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
Kilmarnock's difficult start in the Premiership
Kilmarnock sit bottom of the Scottish Premiership table after losing their opening three league matches, including a 4-0 defeat at home to Dundee United.
St Mirren's unbeaten league start
St Mirren maintain a strong early position near the top of the Premiership table after an unbeaten start of two wins and one draw from three games.
Kilmarnock defensive injury concern
Kilmarnock defender Robbie Deas was sidelined with an injury picked up during their previous match against Dundee United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.