St. Johnstone FC — Kilmarnock FC: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.8% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.0% / 44.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
St. Johnstone FC have a slight edge over Kilmarnock FC in this Premiership meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the sides. The overall outlook is balanced rather than one-sided, with the home advantage providing the main reason to favour St. Johnstone FC.
The match is projected to sit in a medium-scoring range. A draw remains a credible outcome, and the assessment of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so neither defensive control nor an open exchange can be treated as the clear expectation. The most plausible scorelines indicate a tight game, with 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 all fitting the general profile. Kilmarnock FC should therefore remain competitive, while St. Johnstone FC will look to turn their narrow advantage into a controlled home performance.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.