St. Johnstone FC — Kilmarnock FC: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.0% |
| 12 | 72.0% | |
| X2 | 56.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.3% / 23.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.4% / 71.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.6% / 86.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.6% / 94.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.05.2026 away Ayr 1:0
- 24.04.2026 home Raith Rvs 2:0
- 21.04.2026 away Dunfermline 2:0
- 11.04.2026 home Airdrie Utd 4:0
- 04.04.2026 away Arbroath 4:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Livingston 4:1
- 12.05.2026 home Dundee 3:1
- 09.05.2026 away St Mirren 3:0
- 02.05.2026 home Dundee United 3:0
- 25.04.2026 away Aberdeen 0:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2025 St. Johnstone FC 0:2 Kilmarnock FC
- 15.02.2025 Kilmarnock FC 3:1 St. Johnstone FC
- 23.11.2024 St. Johnstone FC 1:0 Kilmarnock FC
- 11.08.2024 Kilmarnock FC 0:3 St. Johnstone FC
- 13.04.2024 St. Johnstone FC 0:2 Kilmarnock FC
- 23.12.2023 Kilmarnock FC 2:1 St. Johnstone FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
St. Johnstone FC have a slight edge over Kilmarnock FC in this Premiership meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the sides. The overall outlook is balanced rather than one-sided, with the home advantage providing the main reason to favour St. Johnstone FC.
The match is projected to sit in a medium-scoring range. A draw remains a credible outcome, and the assessment of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so neither defensive control nor an open exchange can be treated as the clear expectation. The most plausible scorelines indicate a tight game, with 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 all fitting the general profile. Kilmarnock FC should therefore remain competitive, while St. Johnstone FC will look to turn their narrow advantage into a controlled home performance.
What matters before kick-off
Kilmarnock's League Cup run
Neil McCann's Kilmarnock enter the Premiership opening match unbeaten in the Scottish League Cup group stage. They topped Group H after failing to concede a single goal in regulation time across all four matches.
Kilmarnock squad availability
Kilmarnock head into the top-flight opener with a largely fit squad. Forward Djenairo Daniels remains the main absentee as he continues his recovery from a long-term knee injury.
St. Johnstone's Premiership return
St. Johnstone play their first match back in the Scottish Premiership. Head coach Simo Valakari guided the Perth side straight back to the top flight after winning the 2025-26 Championship title.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.