Aberdeen FC — Heart of Midlothian FC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.2% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.2% / 21.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.6% / 69.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.1% / 84.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.4% / 93.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 away Dundee 2:3
- 12.05.2026 home St Mirren 0:2
- 09.05.2026 home Dundee United 2:0
- 01.05.2026 away Livingston 2:2
- 25.04.2026 home Kilmarnock 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Celtic 1:3
- 13.05.2026 home Falkirk 3:0
- 09.05.2026 away Motherwell 1:1
- 04.05.2026 home Rangers 2:1
- 26.04.2026 away Hibernian 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.02.2026 Heart of Midlothian FC 1:0 Aberdeen FC
- 23.11.2025 Aberdeen FC 1:0 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 04.08.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 2:0 Aberdeen FC
- 12.01.2025 Aberdeen FC 0:0 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 01.12.2024 Heart of Midlothian FC 1:1 Aberdeen FC
- 06.10.2024 Aberdeen FC 3:2 Heart of Midlothian FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Aberdeen FC host Heart of Midlothian FC in a Premiership fixture that looks relatively balanced, although the visitors hold a slight edge. The moderate confidence level suggests that the difference between the sides is not pronounced, with a draw remaining a realistic possibility. The available assessment points towards a medium-scoring match rather than a game dominated by either defence.
Both teams are likely to score, which adds weight to the possibility of an open contest with chances at both ends. The main result signal favours Heart of Midlothian FC avoiding defeat, while the most plausible scoreline is 1:1. A narrow away win, particularly 1:2 or 0:1, is also consistent with the outlook. Aberdeen FC should therefore remain competitive, but Heart of Midlothian FC appear slightly better placed to take something from the match.
What matters before kick-off
Scottish League Cup form
Aberdeen enter the opening round of the Premiership season following a flawless Scottish League Cup group stage, where they won all four Group A matches.
Hearts eliminated from Champions League qualifying
Heart of Midlothian suffered a 6-0 aggregate defeat against Austrian side Sturm Graz in the Champions League second qualifying round ahead of their league opener.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.