Aberdeen FC — Heart of Midlothian FC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.4% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 73.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.7% / 45.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.4% / 67.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.4% / 83.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.2% / 92.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 4.20 → now 3.40 |
| X | was 3.80 → now 3.60 |
| X2 | was 1.73 → now 2.00 |
Match preview
Aberdeen FC host Heart of Midlothian FC in a Premiership contest that appears relatively balanced, although the available assessment gives Heart of Midlothian FC a slight edge. The confidence in that lean is low, so the match should be viewed as open rather than one-sided. Aberdeen FC will have home advantage, but the overall signal still points marginally towards the visitors.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with several plausible paths through the game. A draw remains a credible possibility, while both teams scoring is considered too close to call. The most likely scorelines include 1-1, 0-1 and 1-2, which reflects the narrow gap between the teams and the limited strength of the away preference. Heart of Midlothian FC may have the sharper overall outlook, but Aberdeen FC have a realistic chance of keeping the contest competitive, particularly if they can make effective use of their home setting.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.