Falkirk FC — St Mirren FC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.8% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 52.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.1% / 22.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Falkirk FC go into this Premiership meeting with a slight but credible edge over St Mirren FC. The overall assessment points towards the hosts avoiding defeat, although the margin between the sides is not wide enough to suggest a one-sided contest. Falkirk’s home advantage is therefore an important part of the outlook, while St Mirren remain capable of making the match competitive.
The scoring expectation is moderate rather than especially open, with neither a low-scoring stalemate nor a high-scoring game standing out as the clear scenario. The likelihood of both teams finding the net is finely balanced, which reinforces the view that small details could shape the result. A narrow Falkirk win and a draw are both consistent with the assessment, while St Mirren’s best route may be to keep the game close and capitalise on any opportunities that emerge.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.