Falkirk FC — St Mirren FC: Win probabilities, 01.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.6% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.2% / 43.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.5% / 22.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Rangers 2:5
- 13.05.2026 away Hearts 0:3
- 09.05.2026 home Hibernian 1:3
- 02.05.2026 home Motherwell 1:0
- 25.04.2026 away Celtic 1:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Dundee United 1:1
- 12.05.2026 away Aberdeen 2:0
- 09.05.2026 home Kilmarnock 0:3
- 02.05.2026 away Dundee 0:1
- 25.04.2026 home Livingston 0:2
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Falkirk FC 1:2 St Mirren FC
- 10.01.2026 St Mirren FC 0:2 Falkirk FC
- 13.09.2025 Falkirk FC 1:2 St Mirren FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Falkirk FC host St Mirren FC in the Premiership on 1 August 2026, with the available assessment giving the home side a slight edge. The confidence in that assessment is high, although it points to a competitive match rather than a decisive imbalance. The expected pattern is medium-scoring, suggesting enough attacking involvement for the game to develop beyond a cautious stalemate, while still leaving room for a controlled contest.
The scoring outlook remains balanced between the teams. Both sides finding the net is considered an even possibility, so neither a clean sheet nor goals at both ends should be treated as the central expectation. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1 to Falkirk FC, and 1:0 to Falkirk FC, which reflects the narrow difference between the teams and the possibility of a close finish. Overall, the assessment favours Falkirk FC avoiding defeat, but St Mirren FC remain capable of making the result level.
What matters before kick-off
Start of the new Scottish Premiership season
The match between Falkirk and St Mirren on August 1 kicks off the new Scottish Premiership season for both clubs.
League Cup group stage campaigns
St Mirren finished top of their Scottish League Cup group following three wins from four matches, whereas Falkirk finished second and failed to progress.
Former St Mirren players joining Falkirk
Ahead of the season, Falkirk added former St Mirren players Scott Tanser and Ryan Strain to their squad.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.