Hibernian FC — Motherwell FC: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.8% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.9% / 43.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.5% / 22.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Hibernian FC have a slight edge over Motherwell FC in this Premiership meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with limited separation between the sides. The assessment points towards a medium-scoring match, with the home side marginally better placed but not dominant. That makes the result difficult to separate from the draw, and the overall outlook favours Hibernian FC avoiding defeat rather than an emphatic home performance.
The scoring picture is similarly balanced. Both teams scoring is considered an even possibility, while the likely scorelines include 1-1, 2-1 to Hibernian FC, and 1-0 to the hosts. Those scenarios suggest a match that could remain close throughout, with Motherwell FC capable of keeping the contest competitive. Hibernian FC’s home advantage provides the main distinction in the preview, but the narrow gap means the draw remains a credible outcome.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.