Hibernian FC — Motherwell FC: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.9% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.6% / 25.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.1% / 72.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.7% / 87.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.1% / 94.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Motherwell 0:1
- 13.05.2026 away Rangers 2:1
- 09.05.2026 away Falkirk 3:1
- 03.05.2026 home Celtic 1:2
- 26.04.2026 home Hearts 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Hibernian 1:0
- 13.05.2026 home Celtic 2:3
- 09.05.2026 home Hearts 1:1
- 02.05.2026 away Falkirk 0:1
- 26.04.2026 away Rangers 3:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.05.2026 Hibernian FC 0:1 Motherwell FC
- 21.03.2026 Motherwell FC 0:0 Hibernian FC
- 10.01.2026 Hibernian FC 1:1 Motherwell FC
- 25.11.2025 Motherwell FC 2:0 Hibernian FC
- 11.01.2025 Hibernian FC 3:1 Motherwell FC
- 30.11.2024 Motherwell FC 0:3 Hibernian FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Hibernian FC have a slight edge over Motherwell FC in this Premiership meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with limited separation between the sides. The assessment points towards a medium-scoring match, with the home side marginally better placed but not dominant. That makes the result difficult to separate from the draw, and the overall outlook favours Hibernian FC avoiding defeat rather than an emphatic home performance.
The scoring picture is similarly balanced. Both teams scoring is considered an even possibility, while the likely scorelines include 1-1, 2-1 to Hibernian FC, and 1-0 to the hosts. Those scenarios suggest a match that could remain close throughout, with Motherwell FC capable of keeping the contest competitive. Hibernian FC’s home advantage provides the main distinction in the preview, but the narrow gap means the draw remains a credible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
European fixtures ahead of league opener
Both Hibernian and Motherwell enter their Scottish Premiership opening match following midweek action in UEFA Conference League qualifying.
Previous season league standings
In the previous Scottish Premiership season, Motherwell finished in fourth place while Hibernian ended the campaign in fifth.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.