St. Johnstone FC — Celtic Glasgow: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 32.7% |
| 12 | 82.0% | |
| X2 | 85.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.3% / 35.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.2% / 57.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.0% / 76.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
St. Johnstone FC host Celtic Glasgow in the Premiership with the available indicators pointing to Celtic Glasgow as the clearly stronger side, although the confidence in that assessment is moderate. The overall scoring outlook is high-scoring, suggesting an open contest rather than a match expected to remain tightly controlled for long periods. Celtic Glasgow’s attacking strength gives the visitors the main edge, while St. Johnstone FC will need to stay compact and make efficient use of their opportunities.
The assessment also treats both teams scoring as finely balanced, so there is no clear signal that either side will definitely find the net. The most plausible scoreline range includes a narrow Celtic Glasgow victory, a more controlled away win, or a level result, with 1:2, 0:2 and 1:1 identified as the leading possibilities. Overall, the match points toward Celtic Glasgow having the stronger claim, but the moderate confidence and balanced view on both teams scoring leave room for a competitive game.
What matters before kick-off
Celtic's Perfect League Start
Celtic enter the match against St. Johnstone having won all five of their opening Scottish Premiership fixtures this season.
St. Johnstone's Home Form
St. Johnstone have won both of their opening Scottish Premiership home games at McDiarmid Park this season, defeating Kilmarnock and Hibernian.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.