Glasgow Rangers — St Mirren FC: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.7% |
| 12 | 85.8% | |
| X2 | 21.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.2% / 32.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Glasgow Rangers go into this Premiership meeting with a clear advantage over St Mirren FC. The available assessment points strongly towards the home side, while the expected character of the match is relatively open and high-scoring. That combination suggests Glasgow Rangers should be able to impose sustained pressure, especially through their attacking play, although St Mirren FC may still have opportunities if the game becomes stretched.
The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0, which reflect a home win with varying levels of resistance from St Mirren FC. The outlook for both teams scoring is less decisive, so it would be unwise to treat a St Mirren FC goal as either essential or unlikely. Overall, Glasgow Rangers are clearly stronger on the available evidence, but the open scoring profile leaves room for different match patterns before the final result is settled.
What matters before kick-off
Rangers captain sidelined
Rangers captain Lawrence Shankland has been sidelined with a hamstring injury that could keep him out for up to four months.
Level on points in league standings
Both clubs enter the fixture level on 10 points after five Scottish Premiership matches, with St Mirren sitting third on goal difference and Rangers right behind in fourth.
Recent cup meeting outcome
The two sides met in the last 16 of the Premier Sports Cup in August 2026, when Rangers defeated St Mirren 5-1 at Ibrox.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.