Sporting Kansas City — Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 28.1% |
| 12 | 83.7% | |
| X2 | 88.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.0% / 3.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.1% / 51.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.0% / 71.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.08.2026 away Atlanta Utd 1:2
- 20.08.2026 home St. Louis City 1:1
- 16.08.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:2
- 02.08.2026 home Houston Dynamo 0:2
- 26.07.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home FC Dallas 5:0
- 20.08.2026 home Houston Dynamo 0:1
- 17.08.2026 away Seattle Sounders 2:0
- 02.08.2026 home Los Angeles FC 1:1
- 26.07.2026 away Minnesota United 0:0
This season: Sporting Kansas City at home vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC away
| Metric | Sporting Kansas City · at home | Vancouver Whitecaps FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 2–3–5 | 4–3–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.80 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.04.2026 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3:0 Sporting Kansas City
- 21.09.2025 Sporting Kansas City 0:2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- 27.07.2025 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3:0 Sporting Kansas City
- 18.07.2024 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2:1 Sporting Kansas City
- 30.05.2024 Sporting Kansas City 1:2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- 02.07.2023 Sporting Kansas City 3:0 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sporting Kansas City face Vancouver Whitecaps FC in an MLS meeting where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge. The assessment points towards Vancouver Whitecaps FC being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be overstated. Sporting Kansas City will need to remain compact and efficient in transition if they are to limit the visitors’ attacking influence.
The match is expected to be open, with a high-scoring profile and both teams likely to find the net. That combination could create a contest shaped by attacking momentum rather than extended periods of cautious play. Vancouver Whitecaps FC appear better placed to take advantage of that environment, but Sporting Kansas City should still have opportunities if they can exploit space and sustain pressure. Overall, the analysis gives Vancouver Whitecaps FC a clear but not absolute advantage in a game that may produce chances at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
Player availability updates
Sporting Kansas City will be without injured midfielders Jake Davis and Owen Wolff, while Vancouver Whitecaps FC have ruled out Kenji Cabrera, Belal Halbouni, Kwasi Poku, Ralph Priso, and Ranko Veselinovic.
Vancouver Whitecaps extend Tate Johnson
Vancouver Whitecaps FC full-back Tate Johnson has signed a contract extension through the 2029-30 MLS season with a club option for 2030-31.
Sporting KC acquired Owen Wolff
Sporting Kansas City completed the acquisition of 21-year-old midfielder Owen Wolff from Austin FC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.