Toronto FC — New York City FC: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.6% |
| 12 | 73.0% | |
| X2 | 62.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.4% / 59.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.5% / 77.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Inter Miami 2:1
- 20.08.2026 home Charlotte 3:3
- 16.08.2026 home New England Revolution 2:1
- 01.08.2026 away New York City 1:1
- 26.07.2026 away DC United 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away New England Revolution 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away FC Cincinnati 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home Philadelphia Union 2:3
- 01.08.2026 home Toronto FC 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Chicago Fire 3:1
This season: Toronto FC at home vs New York City FC away
| Metric | Toronto FC · at home | New York City FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 3–6–2 | 3–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.08.2026 New York City FC 1:1 Toronto FC
- 04.07.2025 New York City FC 3:1 Toronto FC
- 26.04.2025 Toronto FC 0:1 New York City FC
- 12.05.2024 Toronto FC 2:3 New York City FC
- 16.03.2024 New York City FC 2:1 Toronto FC
- 24.09.2023 New York City FC 3:0 Toronto FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Toronto FC and New York City FC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, pointing instead to a contest where the balance could shift during the match. With only moderate confidence in the projection, the outcome remains open rather than strongly defined.
The main expectation is for an open, high-scoring game. Both teams are considered likely to score, which suggests that the match may develop through exchanges at both ends rather than being controlled by one side. Toronto FC will have home advantage, while New York City FC bring an equally credible prospect of influencing the result. The most plausible scenarios include a draw or a narrow win for either team, so the key feature of the preview is competitive balance combined with attacking potential.
What matters before kick-off
Toronto FC availability update
According to the official MLS player status report, Toronto FC are missing Niklas Dorsch, Deandre Kerr, Jonathan Osorio, and Nelson Palacio.
NYCFC missing key players
New York City FC face Toronto with eight players absent, including Alonso Martínez, Maxi Moralez, Talles Magno, and Aiden O'Neill.
Toronto FC recent result
Toronto FC entered the matchup following a 2-1 away victory over Inter Miami CF on August 22.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.