Minnesota United FC — Orlando City SC: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.9% |
| 12 | 76.9% | |
| X2 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 5:1
- 20.08.2026 home Atlanta Utd 1:2
- 16.08.2026 away Real Salt Lake 1:1
- 02.08.2026 home San Diego FC 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
- 20.08.2026 home Chicago Fire 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home FC Cincinnati 1:1
- 02.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 2:3
- 26.07.2026 home Nashville SC 1:0
This season: Minnesota United FC at home vs Orlando City SC away
| Metric | Minnesota United FC · at home | Orlando City SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 2–5–3 | 2–1–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.03.2024 Orlando City SC 2:3 Minnesota United FC
- 16.04.2023 Minnesota United FC 1:2 Orlando City SC
- 07.08.2020 Orlando City SC 3:1 Minnesota United FC
- 18.08.2019 Minnesota United FC 1:1 Orlando City SC
- 11.03.2018 Orlando City SC 1:2 Minnesota United FC
- 28.05.2017 Minnesota United FC 1:0 Orlando City SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Minnesota United FC hold a slight edge over Orlando City SC in this MLS matchup. The assessment points toward a competitive contest, but the hosts are given the stronger position overall. That advantage is not presented as decisive, so Orlando City SC remain a credible threat throughout the match.
The main expectation is an open, high-scoring game in which both teams are likely to find the net. That suggests the encounter may remain finely balanced even if Minnesota United FC are marginally better placed. A draw is therefore a realistic part of the match outlook, while a narrow home win also fits the wider assessment. Overall, the signal favors Minnesota United FC avoiding defeat, with the strongest emphasis on an entertaining match rather than a one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Match Results
Minnesota United enter the match following an emphatic 5-1 away victory over San Jose Earthquakes, snapping a nine-match winless streak. Orlando City claimed a 2-1 comeback win against Real Salt Lake in their last outing courtesy of a brace from Antoine Griezmann.
Robin Jansson Captain Milestone
Orlando City captain Robin Jansson recorded his 250th start across all competitions for the club in their previous match. He is the first player in Orlando City history to reach that milestone.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.