Nashville SC — FC Cincinnati: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.7% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 43.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.8% / 72.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Columbus Crew 3:2
- 20.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Inter Miami 4:1
- 02.08.2026 away DC United 2:2
- 26.07.2026 away Orlando City 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Seattle Sounders 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home New York City 2:1
- 16.08.2026 away Orlando City 1:1
- 02.08.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 4:2
- 26.07.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:2
This season: Nashville SC at home vs FC Cincinnati away
| Metric | Nashville SC · at home | FC Cincinnati · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 10–1–0 | 1–5–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.91 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.09 | 2.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 90% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.09.2025 FC Cincinnati 2:1 Nashville SC
- 30.03.2025 Nashville SC 1:2 FC Cincinnati
- 22.09.2024 Nashville SC 2:2 FC Cincinnati
- 30.05.2024 FC Cincinnati 0:2 Nashville SC
- 16.07.2023 FC Cincinnati 3:1 Nashville SC
- 26.03.2023 Nashville SC 0:1 FC Cincinnati
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Nashville SC have a clear, though not overwhelming, edge over FC Cincinnati in this MLS fixture. The available assessment points toward the hosts being stronger overall, while the 1X signal also suggests that the match is more likely to stay within a home win or draw scenario than move decisively in favour of the visitors. That gives Nashville SC the more favourable starting position, without removing the possibility of a competitive contest.
The expected match profile is open and high-scoring, with both Nashville SC and FC Cincinnati likely to find the net. This should create a game in which attacking moments carry significant weight, particularly if either side scores early and forces the other to take greater risks. FC Cincinnati remain capable of making the contest difficult, but the balance of the available indicators favours Nashville SC. A home victory is the leading direction, while a draw remains a realistic alternative in a match where both teams are expected to contribute offensively.
What matters before kick-off
Record Busy Month for Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati concludes its busiest month in club history with this match, marking their eighth game across all competitions in August 2026.
Recent Head-to-Head Record
FC Cincinnati won both regular season encounters against Nashville SC in 2025 by a scoreline of 2-1, with both winning goals scored in stoppage time.
Nashville Leading the East
Nashville SC enters the fixture leading the Eastern Conference table with 49 points from 21 regular season matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.