Houston Dynamo — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.5% |
| 12 | 77.7% | |
| X2 | 40.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.0% / 36.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.9% / 33.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.1% / 54.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.4% / 73.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away St. Louis City 1:2
- 20.08.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 1:0
- 08.08.2026 away New England Revolution 2:0
- 02.08.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Minnesota United 1:5
- 20.08.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home St. Louis City 1:3
- 02.08.2026 away FC Cincinnati 2:4
- 26.07.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1
This season: Houston Dynamo at home vs San Jose Earthquakes away
| Metric | Houston Dynamo · at home | San Jose Earthquakes · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–2 | 6–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.30 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.08.2025 Houston Dynamo 1:2 San Jose Earthquakes
- 25.05.2025 San Jose Earthquakes 3:3 Houston Dynamo
- 18.07.2024 San Jose Earthquakes 0:1 Houston Dynamo
- 31.03.2024 Houston Dynamo 2:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 22.06.2023 Houston Dynamo 4:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 02.04.2023 San Jose Earthquakes 2:1 Houston Dynamo
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Houston Dynamo go into this MLS meeting with a clear overall advantage over San Jose Earthquakes, although the moderate confidence suggests that the difference should not be overstated. The projected match profile points toward an open contest with plenty of attacking activity rather than a tightly controlled defensive battle. Houston Dynamo should have the stronger platform, but San Jose Earthquakes are also expected to create enough opportunities to remain involved.
The available assessment makes both teams scoring a plausible feature of the game. That creates an interesting balance: Houston Dynamo appear better placed to control the outcome, while San Jose Earthquakes retain a realistic route into the match through their attacking threat. The likely scorelines range from a narrow home success to a draw or a more comfortable Houston Dynamo win, reinforcing the view that the hosts have the edge without removing uncertainty from the contest.
What matters before kick-off
Houston Dynamo Loss Ended Winning Streak
Houston Dynamo's five-match winning streak came to an end in their previous MLS fixture following a 2-1 defeat against St. Louis City.
San Jose Earthquakes Losed Four Straight Games
San Jose Earthquakes have suffered four consecutive defeats in MLS, including a 5-1 home loss to Minnesota United in their previous match.
Guilherme's Goal Involvement for Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo attacker Guilherme has contributed to 63.3% of the team's MLS goals this season, netting seven goals in his last 11 league appearances.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.