Inter Miami CF — CF Montreal: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.7% |
| 12 | 84.0% | |
| X2 | 29.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.8% / 30.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.1% / 1.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 80.1% / 19.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 42.7% / 57.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Toronto FC 1:2
- 20.08.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Nashville SC 1:4
- 02.08.2026 home Columbus Crew 2:2
- 26.07.2026 away CF Montreal 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 2:2
- 20.08.2026 away Columbus Crew 2:1
- 16.08.2026 home DC United 1:1
- 02.08.2026 home New England Revolution 2:2
- 26.07.2026 home Inter Miami 0:1
This season: Inter Miami CF at home vs CF Montreal away
| Metric | Inter Miami CF · at home | CF Montreal · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 3–4–2 | 2–1–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.44 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.11 | 2.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.07.2026 CF Montreal 0:1 Inter Miami CF
- 06.07.2025 CF Montreal 1:4 Inter Miami CF
- 29.05.2025 Inter Miami CF 4:2 CF Montreal
- 12.05.2024 CF Montreal 2:3 Inter Miami CF
- 10.03.2024 Inter Miami CF 2:3 CF Montreal
- 28.05.2023 CF Montreal 1:0 Inter Miami CF
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Inter Miami CF approach this MLS fixture with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over CF Montreal. The available assessment points toward the home side as the stronger team, although the moderate confidence suggests that the match should be viewed with some caution rather than as a foregone conclusion. Playing at home supports the expectation that Inter Miami CF will control more of the game and create the better attacking opportunities.
The scoring outlook is positive, with a high-scoring contest considered more likely than a tightly controlled defensive match. CF Montreal are also expected to contribute on the scoresheet, which could make the game more open and competitive than the overall balance between the teams might suggest. Inter Miami CF remain the more convincing attacking proposition, while CF Montreal’s prospects appear to depend on exploiting spaces and maintaining efficiency in transition. Overall, the preview favours the hosts, with goals at both ends a plausible feature of the match.
What matters before kick-off
MLS Player Status Report
According to the official MLS player status report for Matchday 23, Inter Miami will be without Tadeo Allende, Gonzalo Lujan, Santi Morales, Micael, Mateo Silvetti, and Sergio Reguilon due to injury. CF Montreal will miss Frankie Amaya and Efrain Morales through injury, while Brayan Ceballos is suspended.
Team records heading into regular season clash
Inter Miami host the MLS regular season fixture carrying 39 points from 21 matches (11W-4L-6D). CF Montreal head into the matchup with 21 points from 21 games (5W-10L-6D).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.