Sporting Kansas City — Saint Louis City SC: Win probabilities, 20.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 47.1% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 76.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.4% / 36.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.6% / 58.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:2
- 02.08.2026 home Houston Dynamo 0:2
- 26.07.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:4
- 23.07.2026 home Minnesota United 2:1
- 17.07.2026 away St. Louis City 2:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 3:1
- 02.08.2026 home Real Salt Lake 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Colorado Rapids 1:0
- 23.07.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 3:1
- 17.07.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 3:2
This season: Sporting Kansas City at home vs Saint Louis City SC away
| Metric | Sporting Kansas City · at home | Saint Louis City SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–5 | 3–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.22 | 1.10 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.89 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.07.2026 Saint Louis City SC 3:2 Sporting Kansas City
- 15.05.2025 Saint Louis City SC 2:2 Sporting Kansas City
- 06.04.2025 Sporting Kansas City 2:0 Saint Louis City SC
- 29.09.2024 Saint Louis City SC 3:1 Sporting Kansas City
- 21.07.2024 Sporting Kansas City 1:1 Saint Louis City SC
- 21.04.2024 Sporting Kansas City 3:3 Saint Louis City SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sporting Kansas City host Saint Louis City SC in an MLS meeting that points toward an open and competitive contest. The assessment gives Saint Louis City SC a slight edge, with the visitors better placed to avoid defeat. That advantage is not large enough to remove the possibility of a balanced game, particularly with Sporting Kansas City expected to contribute to the attacking exchange.
The goal outlook is high-scoring, and both teams are likely to find the net. The most representative scorelines are 1:1, 1:2 and 0:2, indicating a match that could remain close while still offering Saint Louis City SC the stronger route to victory. Sporting Kansas City should have opportunities at home, but the overall signal favors the visitors in the result market, with a draw also a realistic outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Sporting KC Roster Availability
Midfielder Lasse Berg Johnsen returns to Sporting Kansas City after serving a one-match suspension. However, SKC remain shorthanded without rookie Kwaku Agyabeng.
Sporting KC Club-Record Signing
Ahead of the match, Sporting Kansas City announced the signing of 24-year-old forward Andre Luiz from Greek club Olympiacos in a club-record transfer deal.
Recent Results Before the Derby
Sporting Kansas City entered the matchup following a 2-0 defeat to Colorado Rapids, whereas St. Louis CITY SC earned a 3-1 road win against San Jose Earthquakes in their previous outing.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.