Sporting Kansas City — Real Salt Lake: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
33.9%
Home win
Sporting Kansas City
X
24.0%
Draw
W2
42.0%
Away win
Real Salt Lake
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.0%
Both teams to score
Yes70.2%
Totals 2.5
Over69.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.0% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 66.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.2% / 29.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.3% / 30.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.9% / 52.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
Goal distribution model
Sporting Kansas City × Real Salt Lake
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.9%
0:1
4.2%
0:2
5.0%
0:3
3.1%
0:4
1.5%
0:5
0.6%
1
1:0
3.7%
1:1
10.0%
1:2
8.4%
1:3
5.3%
1:4
2.5%
1:5
0.9%
2
2:0
4.0%
2:1
7.5%
2:2
7.1%
2:3
4.5%
2:4
2.1%
2:5
0.8%
3
3:0
2.2%
3:1
4.2%
3:2
4.0%
3:3
2.5%
3:4
1.2%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
0.9%
4:1
1.8%
4:2
1.7%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:110.0%
1:28.4%
2:17.5%
2:27.1%
1:35.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.10.2026 away Seattle Sounders 1:2
- 27.09.2026 away Houston Dynamo 2:0
- 20.09.2026 home Philadelphia Union 3:4
- 13.09.2026 home Los Angeles FC 3:1
- 06.09.2026 away FC Dallas 3:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home New England Revolution 3:0
- 24.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 0:2
- 20.09.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home New York City 0:2
- 10.09.2026 away Houston Dynamo 1:2
This season: Sporting Kansas City at home vs Real Salt Lake away
| Metric | Sporting Kansas City · at home | Real Salt Lake · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 3–3–7 | 1–3–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 62% |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 77% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Sporting Kansas City wins1
Draws1
Real Salt Lake wins4
Goals per match3.67
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 04.04.2026 Real Salt Lake 3:1 Sporting Kansas City
- 14.09.2025 Real Salt Lake 2:1 Sporting Kansas City
- 29.06.2025 Sporting Kansas City 1:1 Real Salt Lake
- 20.06.2024 Sporting Kansas City 3:4 Real Salt Lake
- 05.05.2024 Real Salt Lake 1:0 Sporting Kansas City
- 08.10.2023 Real Salt Lake 2:3 Sporting Kansas City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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