New York City FC — Los Angeles FC: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
33.8%
Home win
New York City FC
X
26.1%
Draw
W2
40.0%
Away win
Los Angeles FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.9%
Both teams to score
Yes61.6%
Totals 2.5
Over58.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.0% |
| 12 | 73.9% | |
| X2 | 66.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.4% / 18.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.8% / 64.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Goal distribution model
New York City FC × Los Angeles FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.9%
0:1
6.7%
0:2
6.1%
0:3
3.2%
0:4
1.3%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
6.0%
1:1
12.1%
1:2
8.8%
1:3
4.6%
1:4
1.8%
1:5
0.6%
2
2:0
5.1%
2:1
8.0%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
3.3%
2:4
1.3%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
2.4%
3:1
3.8%
3:2
3.0%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.9%
4:1
1.4%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.1%
1:28.8%
2:18.0%
0:16.7%
2:26.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Atlanta Utd 2:2
- 19.09.2026 home New York Red Bulls 0:1
- 13.09.2026 away Real Salt Lake 2:0
- 10.09.2026 home New England Revolution 1:2
- 05.09.2026 home Nashville SC 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away FC Dallas 0:1
- 20.09.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 2:2
- 13.09.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 1:3
- 10.09.2026 home New York Red Bulls 2:0
- 06.09.2026 away Real Salt Lake 2:2
This season: New York City FC at home vs Los Angeles FC away
| Metric | New York City FC · at home | Los Angeles FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–6 | 3–6–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.86 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.27 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 53% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 53% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
New York City FC wins1
Draws2
Los Angeles FC wins1
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored3/4
Over 2.5 goals3/4
- 02.03.2025 Los Angeles FC 1:0 New York City FC
- 29.05.2021 Los Angeles FC 1:2 New York City FC
- 17.03.2019 New York City FC 2:2 Los Angeles FC
- 14.05.2018 Los Angeles FC 2:2 New York City FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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