Orlando City SC — DC United: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
56.6%
Home win
Orlando City SC
X
22.0%
Draw
W2
21.4%
Away win
DC United
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.6%
Both teams to score
Yes69.2%
Totals 2.5
Over71.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.6% |
| 12 | 78.0% | |
| X2 | 43.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.2% / 30.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.8% / 28.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.3% / 82.7% |
Goal distribution model
Orlando City SC × DC United
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.6%
0:1
2.2%
0:2
2.4%
0:3
1.1%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
4.4%
1:1
9.1%
1:2
5.5%
1:3
2.6%
1:4
0.9%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.5%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.4%
2:3
3.0%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
5.0%
3:1
7.0%
3:2
4.9%
3:3
2.3%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.9%
4:1
4.1%
4:2
2.9%
4:3
1.3%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.3%
5:1
1.9%
5:2
1.3%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
2:19.1%
1:19.1%
3:17.0%
2:06.5%
2:26.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:4
- 20.09.2026 away New England Revolution 2:4
- 13.09.2026 home Toronto FC 3:0
- 10.09.2026 away Atlanta Utd 3:2
- 06.09.2026 home San Diego FC 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 3:3
- 20.09.2026 home Charlotte 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Atlanta Utd 0:0
- 10.09.2026 home Columbus Crew 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Los Angeles FC 0:0
This season: Orlando City SC at home vs DC United away
| Metric | Orlando City SC · at home | DC United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 7–2–4 | 2–7–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.77 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.31 | 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 58% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Orlando City SC wins3
Draws1
DC United wins2
Goals per match4.33
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 26.04.2026 DC United 3:2 Orlando City SC
- 14.09.2025 DC United 1:1 Orlando City SC
- 22.03.2025 Orlando City SC 4:1 DC United
- 07.07.2024 Orlando City SC 5:0 DC United
- 14.04.2024 DC United 2:3 Orlando City SC
- 23.04.2023 Orlando City SC 1:3 DC United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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